If history is any guide, President Donald Trump is approaching the most difficult stretch of his time in office.
Since presidential term limits took effect in 1951, second-term presidents have typically seen their power and influence begin to ebb after the congressional midterm elections, as lawmakers, donors and ambitious pols shift their attention to the next presidential race.
For most presidents, the dreaded “lame duck” period is a time to shore up their legacy through executive actions, judicial appointments or a bold foreign policy initiative.
But Trump is not like most second-term presidents. His grip on the Republican base remains unusually strong. Much of his agenda already relies on aggressive assertions of executive power rather than congressional dealmaking. And he’s temperamentally unlikely to cede the spotlight to the party’s next generation.
His repeated jokes about seeking a third term — including putting on a “Trump 2028” hat at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner — suggest he has little interest in quietly fading into the background.
Trump has already shown himself able to break with seemingly ironclad rules of politics through an unusually strong connection with his party’s base and a willingness to break with norms. The question will be whether he can continue to part with tradition by avoiding a conventional lame-duck period entirely.
After the midterms, Trump is likely to lose one major source of formal power even if he retains much of his political influence.
Read Elizabeth Maline’s analysis here.
