It’s groundhog day. Tariff threats have returned and are taking their place on the shelf of market risks.

It’s getting crowded, with the U.S. war with Iran, the unsteady market for chip stocks and the quiet march higher in government bond yields already taking up residence in the minds of investors.

President Donald Trump just wound the clock back to the spring of last, with a law first drafted in 1930, and vowed on Monday to impose a fresh round of tariffs on Canada-made goods just days before the expiry of a global 10% levy put in place earlier this year.

The move follows his decision to not to extend the USMCA trade agreement, which he negotiated during his first term in office, and suggests similar actions against major trading partners could be likely over the coming months.

Markets are thus far sanguine, however, as developments in the Gulf region keep oil prices elevated at the highest levels in six weeks, stoke inflation pressures, and add a new dimension of risk heading into the teeth of a crucial second quarter earnings season.

Stocks are even set for a solid early bounce on Tuesday, with beaten-down chip stocks leading early gainers following solid overnight moves in Asia.

The broadest measure of those stocks is still trading nearly 20% south of the all-time highs it reached last month, and U.S. indexes are still stuck in a tight trading range that was first established more than two months ago.

That’s keeping Treasury yields elevated, with 10-year notes holding at 4.59% and longer-dated 30-year bonds trading north of 5% for a third consecutive week.

Trump’s tariff threats are probably toward the back of the shelf for the moment as investors process the panoply of risks. But the addition of a new ‘what’s next?’ for uncertain markets won’t be welcome news.

—Martin Baccardax

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The Trump administration has threatened to impose 50% tariffs on certain Canadian imports, including hockey sticks and cement, in 30 days relying on a Smoot-Hawley era legal authority it hasn’t tried yet, as it seeks to rebuild the tariff policy disrupted by the Supreme Court earlier this year.

• The White House is citing Canada’s so-called discriminatory treatment of U.S. exports including alcohol, autos, and dairy. The latest levies by the administration would apply to goods covered under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact that have been excluded in other tariff actions.

• The U.S. outlined only limited exemptions this time for energy, critical minerals, potash, fish, and products subject to sectoral Section 232 tariffs. King & Spalding’s Ryan Majerus, a former U.S. trade official, said the scale of the tariffs is significant. President Donald Trump’s 2025 global tariffs allowed for carve-outs.

• Tensions between the U.S. and Canada have been high as the countries with Mexico renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact. While the U.S. has had several formal negotiations with Mexico, it hasn’t done so with Canada. Ontario’s premier Doug Ford said Canada should respond dollar for dollar.

• Owen Tedford, an analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors, is skeptical these tariffs will actually be imposed, noting threats in recent months that haven’t seen follow-through. That said, he does expect them to be used as leverage in ongoing USMCA negotiations.

What’s Next: Tedford told Barron’s the use of the Section 338 of the Trade Act of 1930 suggests the White House still believes it can threaten tariffs, with minimal procedural steps, as it did when it imposed global tariffs under emergency powers. The Supreme Court struck down those tariffs in February.

—Reshma Kapadia

Paramount Skydance’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery now faces a big hurdle to being completed before the end of the quarter, after which time the cost of the transaction will escalate. A federal judge temporarily paused it from moving forward while the court considers an antitrust challenge.

• U.S. District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín of the Northern District of California granted a 14-day temporary restraining order prohibiting the merger, saying 12 states had presented “compelling evidence” that the combined firm could control 27% of the market share for wide-release movie distribution.

• The states, including California and New York, have argued that the merger would mean more expensive theater tickets, higher cable bills, fewer opportunities for workers, and fewer original stories. A Paramount spokesperson called the state AGs’ antitrust arguments “without merit,” Warner Bros. didn’t respond.

• The Justice Department approved the combination last month, saying the transaction was unlikely to harm competition. But the federal judge on Monday said based on the 27% market share alone, the court is persuaded that it can presume the proposed merger is likely to violate antitrust laws. 

• The Writers Guild of America filed their own complaint against Paramount and Warner Bros. last week, alleging that the merger would eliminate competition for buying film and television writing, hold down pay, and lead to worse deal terms and reduced programming volume and diversity.  

What’s Next: The judge set a hearing on the plaintiffs’ preliminary injunction motion for Aug. 3. If the deal doesn’t close by Sept. 30, Paramount has agreed to pay Warner shareholders a quarterly “ticking fee” of 25 cents a share, or roughly $650 million every three months until it closes.

—Angela Palumbo and Janet H. Cho

Archer Aviation, which makes electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, is working with the privately held defense technology start-up Anduril as it develops an autonomous vertical takeoff and landing platform for defense and commercial applications.

• Anduril showed off the defense variant, Thunder, at the Farnborough Airshow on Monday. It is a “group five” attack rotorcraft. Group five drones are larger, more capable systems. Group one drones could be carried by a soldier and might be a guided bomb.

• A hybrid-electric powertrain enables better range without compromising power. Using the best technologies from the commercial eVTOL market for defense is central to how Thunder will deliver operational value, Anduril’s Shane Arnott said.

• Archer will announce commercial partners later this week. The news sent its shares up 20% in a tough environment for eVTOL start-ups. Investors, it seems, want to see revenue generation. Archer plans to start commercial service in the Middle East this year.

• The strength of Archer’s stock move might also be affected by short sellers. About 20% of the stock available for trading has been borrowed and sold short by investors betting on declines. Good news can send short sellers rushing to cover the bearish bets. 

What’s Next: Significant sales aren’t expected until 2028, and expectations on Wall Street have been sliding. In October, analysts projected $1 billion in 2028 sales. That estimate is down to about $500 million. A slower sales ramp also means more cash will be needed to finance early operations.

—Al Root

Boeing is going to have a busy few days. The 2026 Farnborough International Airshow kicked off on Monday, giving aerospace executives a chance to meet, update investors, and conduct business with each other.

• The trade exhibition takes place once every two years, just outside London. Riyadh Air, SMBC Aviation Capital, and Philippine Airlines all ordered new jets from Boeing or converted options for orders into firm orders on Monday.

• But shares didn’t feel any sort of benefit, sliding 2.1% to $209.48. Boeing stock was down 3.5% for the year through Monday’s close, struggling as investors worry about the war in Iran driving up oil prices.

• New orders just aren’t the story for investors these days. Boeing and rival Airbus are both trying to build more planes, and what they say about their supply chains will probably move the stocks more than new orders.

• Boeing stock has traded above $250 and below $190 this year. Barron’s wrote positively about Boeing stock in October, believing new management had the company on the right track. Shares were about $200 at the time.

What’s Next: Boeing and Airbus have undelivered backlogs of some 15,000 jets–more than a decade of work at current build rates. Boeing sees 44,000 new jets needed over the next 20 years as demand for air travel doubles.

—Al Root and George Glover

Sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s Subs is getting ready for its initial public offering, but the deal gives current shareholders a way to cash out while asking public investors to pay up for its growth prospects. Roughly 68% of the base deal is a secondary sale rather than new capital. 

• Jersey Mike’s plans to sell 43.5 million shares in a range of $21 to $25 each, valuing the base offering at roughly $913 million to $1.09 billion. Shares are expected to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “JMKE.”