A quest for the next big thing is always the holy grail for markets. But if investors are considering whether they should move some of their gains from current AI heavyweight Nvidia into future stock market star SpaceX, it’s best to stick with what you know.

Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday afternoon were predictably strong. The chip maker is adding significant cash returns to its impressive revenue growth and margins. Perhaps more importantly, it is reacting to a broadening AI processor market, flagging $20 billion in revenue from central-processing unit sales this year, adding to its core graphics-processing units. 

Will investors be impressed? The initial reaction early Thursday was underwhelming, with Nvidia shares barely moving. The stock has risen 19% in the past three months, so an earnings beat appears to have been priced in. And Nvidia is the victim of the law of large numbers—it takes a lot to move a $5 trillion company. 

But a look at SpaceX’s figures from the filing for its initial public offering should be a reminder to Nvidia shareholders to value what they have. Elon Musk’s conglomerate of rocket launches, satellite communications, AI and the ghost of Twitter is hoping to get a valuation north of $1.5 trillion. But revenue last year under $19 billion and a growth rate of 33% look unremarkable. 

Such figures might not matter to Musk’s legions of retail fans who have kept electric-vehicle maker Tesla’s valuation well above what its earnings would imply for years. But for most investors wanting something new and shiny beyond Nvidia, it’s worth waiting for the listings of AI companies OpenAI and Anthropic which are promising much faster revenue growth than SpaceX and don’t depend on colonizing Mars to reach their full potential. 

—Adam Clark

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SpaceX’s public-market debut just moved one step closer to completion. Investors got more information about the company on Wednesday, when it submitted its S-1 IPO registration statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

• SpaceX said it is going after a $28.5 trillion addressable market and shared the company’s goals. “Our mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars,” the filing said.

• The company plans to use the ticker SPCX, ending speculation, and will list its shares on the Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas.

• SpaceX could be valued at as much as $2 trillion if it raises enough money during an IPO—an amount which would likely make CEO Elon Musk a trillionaire.

• If Musk takes SpaceX to a market value of $7.5 trillion and hits some other milestones—including a permanent Mars colony—he will earn one billion shares. It’s a very Tesla-like incentive structure.

What’s Next: Investors will likely parse the S-1 for more information about Musk, the company’s financial history, plus SpaceX’s artificial intelligence plans. The company is expected to hold a roadshow for its IPO in the coming weeks.

—Al Root

Nvidia released its first-quarter earnings after the market close, with the chip maker handily beating analysts’ estimates.

• For the period, the leader in the AI investing boom posted adjusted earnings of $1.87 a share on revenue of $81.6 billion, higher than forecasts that called for $1.75 and $78.9 billion, respectively.

• Nvidia said it expects $91 billion in second-quarter revenue, plus or minus 2%. That range is higher than the $87.3 billion analysts had forecast.

• The company also hiked its quarterly payout from 1 cent to 25 cents—a 2400% increase. The move means that Nvidia, which now yields about 0.4%, no longer has the lowest yield in the S&P 500—Google parent Alphabet does.

• Nvidia, which has a market capitalization of around $5.4 trillion, said that it also plans to buy back $80 billion worth of stock.

• CEO Jensen Huang called the quarter “extraordinary” during a conference call with investors. “Demand has gone parabolic,” he said. “The reason is simple. Agentic AI has arrived.”

What’s Next: Nvidia “should be growing faster” than the capital expenditure of so-called hyperscalers, Huang said, adding that smaller companies are worth watching since they’re expected to grow their spending. Wall Street will be closely watching as analysts contend with concerns that hyperscalers may slow down spending on Nvidia chips.

—Angela Palumbo, Adam Levine, and Al Root

The Federal Reserve released minutes from its policymaking arm’s April meeting, which showed that most officials said that interest-rate hikes would likely be appropriate if inflation keeps running above the central bank’s target of 2%.

• Three regional Fed presidents objected to the statement language released after the meeting, and pushed to remove wording that signaled the central bank still leaned toward lowering interest rates.

• Even more officials supported the dissenters because of lingering inflation risks, the minutes show. Nearly all policymakers were concerned that commodities prices could remain elevated even if the Iran war ends.

• “Most participants judged that recent data, such as readings on the unemployment rate, layoffs, hiring, and labor force growth, suggested stabilization in the labor market,” the meeting minutes read.

• As a result of this, “many participants indicated that they would have preferred removing the language from the postmeeting statement that suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions.”

What’s Next: Since the meeting—the last policymaking session chaired by Jerome Powell—markets have priced in a growing chance of at least one interest-rate hike by the end of 2026. The Fed will enter a new era on Friday, when Powell’s successor Kevin Warsh, who has spoken out in favor of rate cuts, is due to be sworn in.

—Nicole Goodkind

Target posted first-quarter earnings, with the retailer showing its turnaround plan is working despite challenging economic conditions. Investors were skeptical, however, with shares closing about 4% lower.

• The company posted first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.71 and $25.4 billion in net sales, beating analysts’ estimates. Net sales were 6.7% higher than the year prior.

• Notably, Target raised its revenue guidance by two percentage points from its previous forecast, and now expects net sales growth of about 4% for the year.

• Target also expects adjusted earnings per share to be near the high end of $7.50 to $8.50, compared with the $8.12 consensus.

• However, the forecast increase appeared to worry some on Wall Street.

What’s Next: Retail earnings have been in the spotlight as investors have looked for fresh readings on the consumer. They will get more data on Thursday morning, when Walmart will post first-quarter financials.

—Teresa Rivas and George Glover