* Final peace of the jigsaw?
After countless false dawns, are the U.S. and Iran finally on the verge of agreeing a peace deal? Trump says they are in the "final stages" of talks. We've been here before, but investors seem hopeful this time it's different.
On Wednesday, crude oil prices fell over 5%, Treasury yields had the biggest fall since late March, and Wall Street snapped a three-day losing streak. Pent-up "risk on" demand is out there. But if there's no deal, and Nvidia earnings disappoint, it could be a rocky end to the week.
Keep the customer satisfied
How resilient is the famously resilient U.S. consumer right now? Earnings reports and outlooks from some of the country's largest retailers this week will offer a glimpse - and at first blush, there may be cause for concern.
Target reported strong results and doubled its sales growth forecast, but warned about the outlook. TJX, the parent company of discount retailer TJ Maxx, raised its outlook as cost-wary consumers flocked to its stores for deals. Signs are, shoppers are tightening their belts. Walmart releases earnings before the bell on Thursday.
* Independence say
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments on Japanese monetary policy, in an interview with Reuters in Paris, were interesting. He said Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will undoubtedly do a great job "if they will give him the room to do what he will do."
The pointed jab at Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi shines a light on the political independence of central banks and their ability to set policy free from government interference or influence - a debate echoing around the world, and nowhere louder than the United States.
