What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Anna Szymanski, Editor-in-Charge, Reuters Open Interest

Oil prices rose early on Monday, even as President Donald Trump said the U.S. would begin assisting ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Details on how that operation will work in practice are still patchy, and Tehran has issued threats warning against it.

Meanwhile, the yen jumped against the dollar again, with traders on the lookout for further buying from Japan’s Ministry of Finance after suspected intervention last week.

I'll get into that and more below.

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Today's Market Minute

  • Iran's military warned U.S. forces on Monday not to enter the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump said the U.S. would start helping to free ships stranded in the Gulf by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
  • The yen strengthened suddenly against the dollar on Monday, with markets on alert for action by authorities following suspected intervention by ‌them last week to bolster the battered currency.
  • Bankrupt discount carrier Spirit Airlines ceased operations on Saturday, the industry's first casualty linked to the Iran war.
  • The latest decision by OPEC+ to boost crude output may be largely symbolic, but it still shouldn't be ignored. ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell explains why.
  • Where next for Doctor Copper? Both bulls and bears have plenty of ammunition to argue their respective cases for the base metal amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, explains ROI Metals Columnist Andy Home.
 

Strait talk

President Trump on Sunday described the U.S. plan to free stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz as a “humanitarian gesture” but left the mechanics of the operation vague. U.S. Central Command gave a sense of its scale, however, saying it would provide 15,000 military personnel and more than 100 land and sea-based aircraft.

Iran, for its part, said any foreign armed forces entering the strait would be attacked. Separately, Iranian state media reported that Washington has sent a response, via Pakistan, to Tehran’s 14-point proposal to end the war - a plan that Trump said on Saturday he was likely to reject.

Oil markets responded sceptically to the Hormuz plan. Crude prices initially eased back but later spiked, with Brent trading at around $113/bbl and WTI at around $107/bbl.

Oil markets responded cautiously to the Hormuz plan at first, with crude prices easing back slightly, before later spiking. Brent trading at around $112/bbl and WTI at around $105/bbl.

The lack of progress on a peace deal - with a key sticking point being the timing of nuclear talks - means the broader stalemate and disruption in the Gulf look set to continue for now.

Elsewhere, the yen strengthened abruptly again on Monday, touching 155.7 against the dollar before paring its gains. That’s fuelling speculation of another round of Japanese buying after last week’s apparent intervention, which may have seen the authorities spend up to $35 billion to prop up the flagging currency.

Asian stocks rose on Monday, led by South Korea’s tech-heavy KOSPI, which surged nearly 5%. Chipmaker SK Hynix saw its shares rally more than 12% on U.S. tech firms' rising AI capex. Elsewhere, Japanese markets are closed until Wednesday for the Golden Week holiday.

Wall Street futures were down slightly ahead of the bell. European shares edged lower after the open, with automakers coming under pressure after President Trump said on Friday that he would hike auto tariffs again.

It’s another important week for macro data and earnings. Friday will bring the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls report, with median forecasts seeing growth of 60,000 jobs in April, well under March’s 178,000. The report is unlikely to revive hopes for rate cuts this year, though, after the Fed’s hawkish tilt last week - as more focus is now back on the inflation side of the central bank’s dual mandate.

On the earnings front, companies due to report this week include tech heavyweights AMD, Super Micro Computer and Palantir.

Elsewhere, budget airline Spirit Airlines ceased operations over the weekend after failing to secure creditor support for a U.S. government bailout plan.

Its collapse, which follows a doubling of fuel costs amid the Iran war, removes one of the few air travel options available to low-income Americans - and could be viewed as the first corporate casualty of the Iran war.