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Greetings, CFOs' concerns about geopolitical risk have intensified, with 37 percent now identifying instability and conflict as the biggest threat to their companies' growth—an increase over the past three years. Recent events, such as the Middle East conflict and rising tariffs, have heightened these anxieties. More on that below. Also in this edition:
- Private equity buyouts fall amid AI, war concerns
- SEC proposes 11% budget cut, signals shift in priorities
- Private credit stress mounts as redemptions surge, returns fall
- AI-driven financial crime surges, reaching $4.4T
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CFOs are increasingly worried about geopolitical instability, citing it as a major risk to company growth, according to McKinsey's latest CFO Pulse Survey. Despite this concern, CFOs remain optimistic about industry growth and plan to increase investments, particularly in Asia-Pacific and North America.
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Private equity buyouts dropped 36% in Q1 compared with the previous quarter because of concerns about artificial intelligence's effect on software companies and geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, according to Dealogic. "We're in one of the most turbulent periods I can remember," says a European buyout group executive. "Things are grinding down quite quickly now in terms of activity."
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The Securities and Exchange Commission has proposed a $1.9 billion budget for the upcoming fiscal year, an 11% reduction from current levels, as it emphasizes fiscal discipline, efficiency and modernization. While SEC funding is offset by industry fees, the agency said it plans to reallocate resources and modestly increase staffing through attrition to support policy priorities. Chair Paul Atkins is advancing a broad agenda that includes crypto rulemaking, potential changes to public company disclosures and market structure reforms, with several proposals already under White House review.
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US inflation data this week will reflect the initial impact of President Donald Trump's war in Iran, with February's core personal consumption expenditures index expected to increase 0.4%. March's consumer price index is anticipated to show a 0.9% surge, driven by higher oil prices.
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The global momentum for tokenized stocks is evident as investor Leo Li in Hong Kong recently purchased digital tokens representing Alphabet shares via Ondo Global Markets. The New York Stock Exchange is actively exploring tokenization, mirroring international efforts.
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The private credit sector is experiencing stress as redemption requests surge at business development companies. Investors are concerned about falling returns and the potential disruption from artificial intelligence, prompting major firms to cap withdrawals. Analysts warn of a potential snowball effect, although some believe the risks are not systemic.
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