A Nevada judge has extended a ban on Kalshi's event-based contracts, ruling they constitute unlicensed gambling under state law. The decision, following a preliminary injunction granted to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, challenges Kalshi's argument that the contracts are financial derivatives under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's jurisdiction.

Oil markets are increasingly skeptical of US President Donald Trump's claims of progress toward ending the Iran conflict, limiting their impact on prices. While earlier announcements briefly pushed prices lower, ongoing fighting and supply disruptions have reduced their effectiveness. Traders now focus more on physical risks than political messaging, market participants say.

Kalshi is working to shift its perception from prediction market to derivatives exchange, with newly appointed head of institutional Andy Ross focusing on attracting institutional investors by monetizing the data generated from prediction markets. By offering the "wisdom-of-crowds", Kalshi provides unique insight to institutional participants.

Hedge funds have shifted to a net bullish position on wheat for the first time since 2022, reflecting growing confidence in higher prices. The reversal was marked by a surge in long positions to their highest level in over six years, outpacing shorts by 8,641 contracts during the week ending March 31, 2026.

The rapid advancement of light-driven electronics is raising concerns about the potential risks posed to market infrastructure due to unprecedented trading speeds. These new technologies could outpace the ability of existing systems to manage and monitor market activity, increasing the likelihood of unforeseen disruptions and systemic vulnerabilities as market participants race to execute trades faster than ever before.

Metals traders began the year concerned about a copper supply crunch but faced an unexpected aluminum crisis by the end of the first quarter, driven by the ongoing Iran war, writes Andy Home. Iranian missile strikes have damaged Gulf smelters, with Aluminium Bahrain operating at 30% capacity and Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah smelter completely halted. This has led to a surge in aluminum prices and physical premiums, highlighting the fragility of the western aluminum supply chain, Home says.

Polymarket has removed a betting forum related to the US military rescue mission in Iran after political pressure, highlighting increasing scrutiny of prediction markets. Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., criticized the platform for allowing bets on the rescue of airmen after an F-15E was shot down. Polymarket said the forum violated its integrity standards.

OPEC+ has approved a symbolic increase in oil output quotas for May 2026, raising targets by about 206,000 barrels per day. However, this move is largely theoretical as the ongoing war in the Middle East has forced top producers to curtail supplies and heavily disrupted exports. With key Persian Gulf producers still throttling output and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, the group's stated increase signals its intent to restore production once stability returns, but has little immediate effect on actual supply.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the move to blockchain-based trading infrastructure through tokenization could accelerate financial crises beyond regulators' capacity to respond. Although the technology promises cost reduction and elimination of settlement delays, the IMF sees instant settlement as a potential vulnerability, leaving little time for regulatory intervention. The IMF has suggested that the policy response should include clarifying tokenized assets' legal status and anchoring settlement in safe money.

The rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has created new insider trading risks for banks, as rules around such trades remain less defined than those for traditional securities. Experts warn that employees may be able to exploit nonpublic information through these platforms, especially given the difficulty of tracing blockchain-enabled accounts.