In his State of the Union address in January, Donald Trump identified a problem for America: “We’re winning so much that we really don't know what to do about it.” To give him his due, he seems to have found a solution. 

Almost four weeks have passed since Mr Trump launched his misguided war on Iran. Remarkably, it is the Middle Eastern country that has the strategic advantage. At home the hardliners’ grip is, if anything, stronger than it was. Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is now clear to everyone; so too the difficulty of loosening its stranglehold. The Gulf states fear that a wounded, defiant Iran is more of a threat than before. Israel, too, has reason to worry. The war puts more strain on its long-standing ties to America; pro-Israel lobbyists there are struggling for the first time in years. 

Mr Trump might yet choose to escalate the conflict further but, as our cover leader argues, the better course is a full ceasefire and proper negotiations. But a deal will be both hard to negotiate and worse than any agreement that could have been struck before the fighting. It is also too late for the economic damage to be undone quickly. Whatever happens, global oil and gas markets will remain undersupplied for months; market-based measures of inflation expectations are shooting up. In our new Insider interview, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, warns of a “real shock…probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment”. Subscribers can watch that interview now.