Global investors are starting to see a window into the end of the U.S.-led war with Iran, which enters its fourth week on Saturday, but will still likely face an entirely different financial market landscape to navigate on the other side. 

That’s likely holding back risk appetite with stocks not yet ready to react to an easing of global crude prices. Heading into the Friday trading session we also have a so-called quadruple witching day of options expiring before the close.

Oil is still trading firmly north of $100 and bleeding deeper into inflation forecasts for major economies around the world, despite encouraging comments from Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that suggest energy infrastructure won’t be targeted in the ongoing conflict.

Trading in currency markets, including a modest retreat for the dollar, suggest Wall Street is willing to nibble around the edges of a post-war trade. But with stocks at the lowest levels in three months, and vulnerable to headline shocks heading into the weekend, investors aren’t fully committed to betting on a conclusion.

There is agreement, however, about the impact surging crude prices will have on inflation and central bank policy. Rate hikes are now expected in Britain, Europe, and Japan over the coming months, with nascent bets on a similar move by the Federal Reserve. 

That will likely lead to a big reset of stock market forecasts if and when the conflict subsides, leaving investors to navigate weaker growth prospects, higher risk-free interest rates, and elevated commodity prices. 

Still, despite the war upheaval, private credit angst and tech sector malaise, the S&P 500 is down 3.5% for the year—precisely the same decline booked over the same period in 2025.

So the post-war starting point may not be all that bad. But it will certainly be different.

—Martin Baccardax

Get more of the journalism you love. Choose Barron’s as a preferred source in Google.

The U.S. government charged a co-founder of Super Micro Computer and two other individuals with involvement in a plan to divert U.S.-assembled servers to China in a violation of export-control laws.

• The three individuals aimed to sell billions of dollars’ worth of artificial-intelligence-powered servers containing restricted Nvidia chips to China, according to an indictment unsealed on Thursday.

• Among the individuals charged was Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, Super Micro’s senior vice president of business development, as well as a company co-founder and a board member. The other two were a sales manager in Taiwan named Ruei-Tsang “Steven” Chang and a contractor named Ting-Wei “Willy” Sun. Super Micro placed its two employees on leave and fired the contractor after learning of their alleged involvement.

• “The conduct by these individuals alleged in the indictment is a contravention of the Company’s policies and compliance controls, including efforts to circumvent applicable export control laws and regulations,” Super Micro wrote in a statement on Friday.

• The company also noted that: “Supermicro maintains a robust compliance program and is committed to full adherence to all applicable U.S. export and re-export control laws and regulations.” Super Micro said it has been cooperating with the government’s investigation and will continue to do so.  The company has been approached for comment.

What’s Next: President Donald Trump was scheduled to visit Beijing on April 1, but asked to delay it by “a month or so” amid the Iran war. When he does meet China’s leader Xi Jinping, U.S. controls on chip exports will likely be a hot topic. 

—Adam Clark and Alex Kozul-Wright 

FedEx blew away quarterly earnings expectations and raised its full-year outlook, in anticipation of higher sales and profits despite soaring oil prices and global shipping disruptions caused by the Iran war. Higher U.S. domestic volumes, higher prices, and a strong peak shipping season led to the earnings beat. 

• The logistics giant reported fiscal third-quarter earnings of $5.25 a share and sales of $24 billion, up 8%. FedEx also posted a quarterly profit of $1.06 billion, compared with $909 million a year ago.

• Although investors had worried about oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel, FedEx said it is shipping higher volumes of packages in the U.S. and charging more for them worldwide. It has resumed pickup and delivery services in the Middle East, but has warned of shipping delays.

• FedEx is permanently cutting more than $1 billion in cost this year, and has trimmed its spending outlook to $4.1 billion from $4.5 billion. It is also suing to recover the tariffs it has paid now that the Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump’s emergency-powers tariffs were illegal.

• FedEx is spinning off its Freight division, which competes with the likes of Old Dominion Freight Line, into its own publicly traded company by June 1. Investors and management hope that the company will trade for a higher valuation multiple post-spinoff.

What’s Next: For its full fiscal year that ends in May, FedEx expects revenue to increase 6% to 6.5%, which would be above its previous growth forecast. It expects adjusted earnings of $19.30 to $20.10 a share, also up from an earlier forecast.

—Al Root and Janet H. Cho

President Donald Trump hasn’t relented in his pressure campaign to influence the Federal Reserve and still wants a federal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. His remarks could end up endangering the still-unscheduled Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh, his choice to succeed Powell.

• Trump lambasted Powell during an Oval Office news conference on Thursday, again accusing Powell of criminal wrongdoing in the costly renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters, which is at the heart of the Justice Department’s investigation of Powell and the central bank.

• Powell and the Fed have denied allegations of wrongdoing, and the Fed declined to comment on Trump’s latest remarks. But Trump’s remarks could escalate the legal feud and extend Powell’s tenure well beyond the May 15 end of his term as Fed chair.

• Trump made clear he has no intention of backing down from trying to discredit Powell, whom he has repeatedly criticized for failing to lower interest rates further. Trump’s latest remarks appear to be a notable shift from the White House’s previous posture that the probe was a Justice Department matter.

• In a significant legal setback, a federal judge last week quashed the department’s subpoenas targeting Powell and declared that the government had produced “no evidence whatsoever that Powell committed any crime other than displeasing the president.” U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said she would appeal the ruling.

What’s Next: As long as the investigation remains active, Powell says he won’t leave. Powell’s term as board governor runs through January 2028. If Warsh is confirmed, Powell could be a voting member of the policymaking body that sets interest rates through the midterm elections and the end of Trump’s term.

—Nicole Goodkind and Janet H. Cho

As painful as the past week has been for stocks, investors in shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are having it worse. A confluence of events makes it one of the worst possible environments for a potential Fannie-Freddie share offering, a goal that has been floated inside the Trump administration.

• Shares of the two housing finance companies soared when President Trump entered office last year, hitting a 52-week high in September but then lost 75% from there. Trump was expected to take steps to release the companies from government control.

• Administration officials like Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, whose agency controls the companies, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick several times over the past year have indicated that a share offering is coming soon. But several factors have kept those promises from coming to fruition.

• Selling shares of Fannie and Freddie is a delicate proposition even in good times. They don’t make mortgages, but buy them from lenders and bundle them into guaranteed mortgage-backed securities. It frees up banks to make more loans and supports homeownership with 30-year fixed loans.

• The government took control of the companies in 2008 in a deal that made it the companies’ biggest shareholder. Trump could decide to sell down that stake, or tackle the bigger issue of releasing them from government control in a public offering. Many now expect Trump to pursue a stake sale.

What’s Next: With 30-year mortgage rates rising above 6%, a Federal Reserve that looks reluctant to cut rates, soaring energy prices that could ignite inflation, and the looming midterm elections, the administration is unlikely to want to upset the bond market more. White House officials have largely gone silent on a restructuring.

—Joe Light

Not long ago, retailers seemed set to reap the gains of higher tax returns, but the war in Iran drastically altered that picture. Now the typical U.S. consumer faces a global oil shock, and higher gasoline prices have Wall Street worried about the potential hit to consumer spending.

• An anticipated bump in tax refunds this spring was important because consumption has been cooling, with real spending up just 0.1% in both December and January from the prior month, and February might not be much better.