Good morning. Eid Mubarak. I hope your homes will be filled with happiness. It’s the first day of spring! The price of oil was down this morning, but missiles and drones continue to fly across the Middle East. Israel said it had launched attacks on Tehran after strikes on northern Israel overnight. Let’s start there.
Whose war?What does the United States want to achieve in its nearly three-week war on Iran? What does Israel? At the start of the conflict, the two countries seemed to share similar goals: topple the leader, enfeeble the military and forever terminate the nuclear program. Now, though, the allies seem to be diverging, my colleague Steven Erlanger reports. For all the rhetoric we remember about America First, the United States remains a global superpower concerned about the worldwide supply of oil and the safety of its allies around the Persian Gulf. Iran does not pose an existential threat to Washington, and America’s leaders don’t want their voters impoverishing themselves at the gas pump. Israel, however, is a regional power. Its concerns are narrower. Put simply, it wants to cripple a country that has sworn itself to Israel’s destruction. So it keeps killing officials in Tehran, grinding down the government, blowing up oil facilities and striking Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah. “It sees an extraordinary opportunity to clobber Iran with American help, and it is likely to want to continue the war longer than President Trump,” Steve writes. The Islamic Republic has retaliated against energy targets in the Gulf and sent global oil and gas prices soaring. If it keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed and induces a global recession, well, that’s not Israel’s worry, analysts say. “They have a set of strategic objectives and believe they are succeeding, and they’re not as price sensitive as the White House,” one Iran expert told Steve. “They are more willing to weather the storm and try to finish the job.” A former Pentagon official put it succinctly: “Most Israelis simply hope for the demise of their nemesis,” he said.
The fear in WashingtonThe Trump administration understands that Americans, for whom the stakes are lower, will have less patience than Israelis. The president wants to reassure people. “It will be over with pretty soon,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office yesterday. Until then, his aides are trying to salve the economic wounds. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said the U.S. could release more oil from its strategic reserves. And he told Fox Business that the U.S. “may unsanction the Iranian oil” that is already at sea, about 140 million barrels. “That would, of course, bring more revenue to Iran,” my colleague David Sanger, who covers the White House, writes. Bessent insisted, somewhat confusingly, that “we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down.” To finance that campaign, though, the Pentagon yesterday sent the White House a request for $200 billion in funding for the war — hardly a balm to those seeking a quick end. (“Obviously, it takes money to kill bad guys,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said.) Trump told reporters that such a sum would be “a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top.” It’s also on par with what the United States spent annually at the height of the Iraq war. Another fear in Washington, David reports, is that Gulf nations — which have not answered Iranian missile and drone attacks — will now begin to fight back. On Wednesday, two sets of incoming ballistic missiles were intercepted over Saudi Arabia, its defense ministry said. “We will not shy away from protecting our country and our economic resources,” the kingdom’s foreign minister said. Israel may not mind the assist. But it’s not the sort of development that will end the conflict.
The war in the Middle East was already a diplomatic, political, military and economic problem. Now it is also a travel problem. Airspace above the conflict is off-limits, squeezing travel routes that have already narrowed during the war in Ukraine. Pilots must fly circuitous paths that burn more fuel. And that fuel is now more expensive as the Iran conflict hampers shipping and refineries. Airlines have canceled thousands of flights. The biggest hassle has been in Asia, where countries rely on Middle Eastern oil and have limited fuel stockpiles. Jet fuel is often the first refined oil product to run short — its price has already doubled since the war began three weeks ago — so the conflict will likely bring even more disruptions soon. In the video below, our chief economics correspondent, Ben Casselman, explains how the oil crisis is affecting gasoline prices. Click to watch.
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Here’s a lovely way to celebrate Eid, the end of the Ramadan fast — or just to have a fantastic Friday evening meal: make Nargisse Benkabbou’s recipe for a kefte tagine with jalapeño yogurt sauce. The kefte — Moroccan-style meatballs — are spiced warmly, as is the rich tomato sauce. You can make like you’re in Rabat and crack some eggs into the pot right before serving. I love the cool-hot of the yogurt sauce, and plenty of chopped parsley for color.
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