Modern Money SmartBrief
Global bond yields surge as rate cut hopes fade
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December 10, 2025
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Fed cut seen as labor market 'insurance'
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut today, with analysts emphasizing that the move is aimed less at stimulating growth and more at preventing further deterioration in the job market. Economists say the Fed is balancing inflation stuck near 3% against rising unemployment, framing the cut as a protective measure amid slowing hiring and a weakening fourth-quarter growth outlook.
Full Story: Fortune (tiered subscription model) (12/10), CNBC (12/9), Business Insider (12/10)
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Trump nears final Fed chair pick ahead of interviews
President Donald Trump plans to conduct final interviews this week with candidates for Federal Reserve chair, including former governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, after abruptly canceling sessions last week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has narrowed the field to five contenders, signaling the job isn't locked up as Trump weighs a successor to Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to deliver another rate cut Wednesday.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (12/9), Financial Times (12/9)
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GOP advances crypto bill compromise push
Senate Banking Republicans have sent Democrats a three-page compromise offer on landmark digital asset market structure legislation, outlining 38 concessions in exchange for preserving 32 key GOP-backed sections. The proposal, led by Chair Tim Scott and Sens. Cynthia Lummis, Bill Hagerty and Bernie Moreno, includes White House-vetted language on SEC/CFTC quorums and ethics, plus consumer protection and bankruptcy standards, while seeking to keep contentious provisions on self-custody and software developer protections ahead of a hoped-for markup next week.
Full Story: Politico (12/9), Bloomberg Government (12/9), The Block (12/9)
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Global bond yields surge as rate cut hopes fade
Global bond yields have hit their highest levels since 2009 as traders scale back expectations for further easing, with markets now pricing virtually no additional cuts from the European Central Bank and renewed tightening in Japan and Australia. Long-dated US Treasury yields also climbed ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected cut, reflecting concerns over inflation persistence, fiscal deficits, and uncertainty surrounding the next Fed chair.
Full Story: Bloomberg (12/10), Reuters (12/10)
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Hassett signals independence on rate cuts
Federal Reserve chair contender Kevin Hassett said he would not bow to political pressure on interest-rate decisions, even as he echoed President Trump's view that there is "plenty of room" for cuts in the months ahead. Speaking at a WSJ event, Hassett said he would rely on data and his own judgment if appointed, stressing that rates couldn't be lowered if inflation were to reaccelerate.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (12/9), Quartz (12/9)
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Megadeals test US bond market's risk appetite
Paramount's $77.9 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, backed by $54 billion in bank and private-credit financing, underscores a resurgence in massive, debt-fueled deals even as credit markets flash signs of exuberance. Bond investors are reportedly growing uneasy as leverage piles up on transactions such as Paramount-Warner and the $55 billion leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts, recalling past hung deals like Twitter's financing and warning that ambitious cost-cut targets and investment-grade promises often fail to survive contact with reality.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (12/9)
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Biotech surge delivers hedge fund windfall
A wave of big-ticket pharma M&A has powered the sector's strongest rally in a decade, with the Nasdaq Biotechnology index up about one-third and specialist hedge funds posting outsized gains. Perceptive Advisors and Caligan Partners benefited from sharp takeovers and trial successes across mid-cap biotech names, as large drugmakers race to replenish pipelines ahead of a steep 2027-28 patent cliff. Executives and analysts expect the brisk deal cycle to continue as strategic urgency rises.
Full Story: Financial Times (12/10)
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Small-cap rally faces 2026 rate headwinds
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Private equity deal flow shows signs of thawing
Bloomberg (12/9)
 
 
Rates lift structured product boom
Risk (subscription required) (12/10)
 
 
 
 
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