A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

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Morning Bid Europe

Morning Bid Europe

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

By Wayne Cole, Chief Correspondent, Treasury

 
 

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It's been a choppy session in Asia as off-again, on-again peace talks between the U.S. and Iran seemed to make progress.

The whole process looked in doubt after President Trump threatened fresh attacks on Iran, and Tehran said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again. 

Then Iranian negotiators said progress had actually been made in the first session of talks, while officials for Oman and Pakistan stated a committee was being formed to run the discussions with an eye to reaching a deal in 60 days.

 

Today's Market News

  • Stocks rally in Asia as Iran cites progress in talks
  • EU weighing new powers to ease duplicated capital rules for banks
  • Sterling strengthens on Burnham win, retail sales data
  • Crown, forint slip further from peaks as FX ease
  • Brent set for 8% weekly fall as Israel, Hezbollah agree ceasefire
 

Choppy waters

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 21, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/via WANA (West Asia News Agency)via REUTERS

The status of the strait was not entirely clear, with shipping having slowed after U.S. Central Command said 55 vessels passed on Saturday, while tracking showed 32 the day before.

Iran also suggested a mechanism would be set up to control the vital waterway, presumably including some sort of fee on shipping.

The apparent progress saw Brent reverse course and slip 2.5% to under $79.00 a barrel, while Asian share markets swung higher.

Wall Street futures and Treasuries pared early losses, though the mounting risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike loomed large.

 

A police officer walks past Number 10 Downing Street in Westminster as Britain's Prime minister Keir Starmer has vowed to fight any challenge after Andy Burnham's decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election, in London, Britain, June 21, 2026. REUTERS/Toby Shepheard
 

Eyes on Downing St

Trump also caused a stir in the UK by posting that Prime Minister Keir Starmer was set to resign, after multiple media reports that Starmer would announce his exit plans to allow a leadership contest by rival Andy Burnham, who won an election for a seat in parliament decisively last week. 

If true, Burnham is considered certain to take the top job and likely to shake up the cabinet including replacing finance minister Rachel Reeves.

The gilt market is unsure how committed Burnham is to fiscal strictness and worried he could end up spending and borrowing more.

 
 

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives welcome remarks
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde and Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis speak
  • EU consumer confidence for June
  • Canadian inflation for May
 
 

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

 

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