Plus: Forget BLS. Here’s How To Take The Economy’s Temperature Without Using Government Data |
Good morning,
A new $250 fee for visitors to the U.S. will deal a multibillion-dollar blow to the already-reeling U.S. tourism industry, industry experts say.The controversial visa integrity fee is expected to deter visitors and cost the economy $11 billion over three years, according to an analysis by Tourism Economics. The Congressional Budget Office says the fee will generate around $27 billion in revenue for the government over a decade, but their estimates don’t capture the full impact—fewer tourists translates to less spending, lower tax revenue and job losses in the industry. “I think in the minds of congressional leaders, foreign visitors don’t vote, so making them pay more … wouldn’t come at any political cost,” Erik Hansen of the U.S. Travel Association told Forbes. “But the problem is it comes at a huge economic cost to American businesses.”
Let’s get into the headlines, |
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Elon Musk and Sam Altman weren’t always at odds—they met in the early 2010s, bonded over their shared concerns about artificial intelligence, and cofounded OpenAI in 2015 as a nonprofit with the mission of developing AI in a responsible manner. But the vibes started souring in 2023, and now the OpenAI CEO is challenging his former friend, one company at a time: Twitter, Tesla and even Neuralink are in his sights. European leaders will join Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. on Monday—setting up what appears to be crucial talks as Trump pushes for a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, following his Friday meeting in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin that yielded no such deal. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will reportedly take part, as well as leaders from France, Italy, Germany, the U.K. and Finland. |
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 | ILLUSTRATION BY MACY SINREICH FOR FORBES |
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After a weak July jobs report and a downward revision of May and June numbers, President Donald Trump pulled a “kill the messenger” move by firing Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. In her place, Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, a Heritage Foundation economist, MAGA stalwart and BLS critic. Some worry that if Antoni is confirmed, the numbers coming out of BLS, which tracks the most-watched economic stats in the country—including inflation, unemployment and payrolls—will be altered to support claims Trump is making about the economy. Meanwhile, many of the Trump faithful believe those numbers already were being doctored. There’s long been a cottage industry of websites promoting alternative inflation figures. They almost always say it’s higher than the official number. The same for unemployment—and even GDP has its skeptics who will tell you we’re in a recession no matter what the Bureau of Economic Analysis says. You don’t have to be a crank or mistrust the government to appreciate alternative indicators. Even economist Alan Greenspan, who chaired the Federal Reserve for 18 years, had his favorite measure, which he believed could predict a coming downturn or recovery before the official numbers: sales of men’s underwear. There’s no shortage of alternatives. Some are straightforward—private payroll counts, consumer price trackers. Others are quirky—skirt lengths, lipstick sales, pawn shop activity. They’re imperfect and difficult to verify if you don’t trust the official data. But they can serve as a gut check, especially if Antoni follows through on his suggestion to pause the monthly jobs report.But even the most straightforward indicators need solid ground to stand on, which brings us to a tricky catch: Alternative data is only as good as the reliable standard you measure it against. |
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“President Trump’s attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics, accusing the agency of rigging jobs and inflation data, has intensified long-standing public skepticism about official figures,” says Forbes senior reporter Brandon Kochkodin. “These numbers shape Federal Reserve policies, business decisions and investor confidence. For those doubting the stats, a mix of serious and quirky alternatives—like payroll data or skirt lengths—offers a gut check on the economy's pulse. Hopefully, official data (depending on your perspective) holds or becomes firm, but tracking these alternative indicators, whether out of skepticism or just for fun, can help you cross-check future numbers.” |
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UnitedHealth, which operates America’s largest health insurer UnitedHealthcare, has tanked nearly 40% this year, making it the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s worst performer. But Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and other high-profile investors are buying the dip: Berkshire disclosed in an SEC filing last week that it purchased over 5 million shares of UnitedHealth Group in the second quarter, briefly sending the stock market to record heights Friday. |
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Washington, D.C. sued the Trump Administration on Friday over its takeover of the city’s police department, arguing the president overstepped his authority as he has aimed to crack down on alleged crime and homelessness. D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb called the government’s actions a “brazen usurpation of the district’s authority,” as the Home Rule Act, which Trump has used to justify the takeover, also gives the city the right to self-govern. In an attempt to end the state’s emissions standards, the Justice Department sued California over its electric vehicle mandate, which the DOJ says is an attempt to “undermine federal law.” The state’s “Clean Truck Partnership” requires a share of heavy-duty vehicles to be electric by 2035, part of an overall effort for all new passenger trucks, cars and SUVs sold in California to be zero-emission vehicles by that time. |
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People may consider Rob Gronkowski to be a “dumb jock,” but the four-time Super Bowl champion has leaned into his affability and self-described “simple” nature to build one of the most in-demand personal brands of any retired athlete. Including his endorsements with companies such as insurer USAA, online sportsbook FanDuel and Monster Energy, along with his broadcasting gig at Fox and event appearances, Forbes estimates Gronkowski earns at least $10 million annually from his business endeavors before taxes and agents’ fees. |
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As news of the latest financial fraud continues to make headlines, a recent study from cybersecurity firm BioCatch aims to better understand how financial institutions are fighting fraud and financial crime, the impact of emerging technologies on the dark economy, and the level of collaboration among competing institutions, law enforcement and governments. To stop fraud, it’s critical to improve technology, information sharing between institutions and communication, the report found. MORE: The FBI is cautioning about a new scam in which fraudsters pretend to be lawyers with fictitious firms, often using social media to offer their services to scam victims while claiming to have the authority to investigate recovery cases. It’s critical to do your due diligence by checking for potential red flags such as references to fake government or regulatory entities or requests for payment in crypto or prepaid gift cards. |
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A massive property has hit the market in New York’s exclusive Tuxedo Park village, which has housed billionaires, socialites and business tycoons since the late 1800s. The Gilded Age estate is the largest in the historic Hudson River Valley town: |
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$29.5 million | The list price for the 151-acre estate | |
| 14,000 | The square footage in the main house | |
| Fewer than 400 | The number of residents in Tuxedo Park, whose homes are listed in the National Register of Historic Places |
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AI is reshaping the modern career ladder, and new college graduates are already feeling the impact, with one report showing a 50% drop in new grad hiring in 2024 compared to pre-pandemic levels. Still, while AI will eventually eliminate some job categories, it will also create new opportunities—and it’s important for young people to build strong professional networks and master AI tools by learning how to use them as well as how to judge, curate and refine AI output. |
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GAMES | QUIZ | A nearly billion-dollar movie franchise is returning for the first time in more than a decade. Which franchise is it? | |
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