Washington Edition

This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Nathan Dean gives his insights into what’s been happening and what’s coming up in the nooks and crannies of government and markets. Sign up here and follow us at @bpolitics. Email our editors here.

Kicking the Can

Greetings from Hilton Head, South Carolina, where my family and I are focused on swimming, biking and trying to convince myself that calories consumed on the beach don’t count.

Over the last few weeks in this column we’ve focused on tariffs. Let’s move away from that – with the exception of this article by Bloomberg News’s Jennifer A. Dlouhy “Trump Vows Substantial Hike of India Tariff Over Russian Oil” – and instead let’s look to what is likely a chaotic September.

First up, for those of you who are government workers, contractors or parents wanting to take their children to the National Zoo, I do not think we are going to have a government shutdown. My odds from my latest note on the Bloomberg Terminal are 40%.

Expect lots of rhetoric, but for me, I think both parties will end up agreeing to kick the can with another continuing resolution as a stopgap to keep the government funded. And for those of you who are government contractors, my friends over at Bloomberg Government have a primer on what a continuing resolution means for you.

And let’s remember, we at Bloomberg Intelligence see little impact on markets or sectors from a shutdown.

I don’t cover monetary policy, but with Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler resigning her position on Aug. 8, the goings-on at the Fed deserve a look this week. Former New York Fed President and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Bill Dudley has this piece, “The Fed’s Under Siege. It’ll Be Just Fine,” and Christopher Condon and Amara Omeokwe have “Fed Governor’s Exit Could Accelerate Trump’s Selection of Next Chair to Succeed Powell.”

Tidbits

I, like probably many of you, am watching the Texas redistricting fight with an eye on what it means for Congress in the coming years. Here’s Joe Lovinger, Julie Fine and Isis Almeida with “Texas Governor Threatens to Expel Democrats for Departing State.”
There was one thing my daughter wanted more than anything else for her birthday this year and that was a pair of Ugg slippers. Here's Micah Barkley on “Ugg Sales Boom Driven By Men Embracing Sporty ‘Uglycore’ Clogs.” I’ll be honest, they do look kind of cool.
I've had several friends in the DC area looking at buying a new home or selling their current place, so on my drive down to South Carolina I listened to this from the Big Take podcast: “Why It’s So Hard to Buy or Sell a House Right Now.” — Nathan R. Dean

Don’t Miss

Trump wants lower interest rates. Achieving that objective will require overcoming bigger obstacles than Fed Chair Jerome Powell as structural forces that drive the cost of borrowing are pointing up.

The president said he’ll announce a new Fed governor and a new jobs data statistician in the coming days, two appointments that may shape his economic agenda amid anxiety about the trajectory of global growth.

Last week’s economic data caught up with the kind of economy that company executives and consumers have long described this year: flashing some warning signs.

The Trump administration is backing away from a widely cited immigration enforcement target, telling a federal appeals court there is no formal policy requiring agents to arrest 3,000 people a day.

The Swiss government said it is determined to win over the US on trade after last week’s shock announcement of 39% tariffs on exports to America that are scheduled to go into effect on Thursday.

As a growing number of the wealthiest US colleges capitulate in their battles with the Trump administration, the strain from lost and frozen federal funding is putting pressure on the holdouts to cut a deal.

Watch & Listen

Today on Bloomberg Television’s Balance of Power early edition at 1 p.m., hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz interviewed US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker about the plan for the alliance to purchase US miliary equipment for Ukraine and the latest administration moves to force Russia to negotiate a ceasefire.

On the program at 5 p.m., they talk with Texas Democratic state Representative Chris Turner about the standoff with Republicans over redrawing the state’s congressional map.

On the Odd Lots podcast, Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal speak with John Coogan and Jordi Hays, the co-hosts of TBPN, a daily show about technology, about how AI is changing the culture of Silicon Valley. Listen on iHeart, Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Chart of the Day

Friday's employment reported showed that there has been a surge in the number of parents missing work because they are on maternity or paternity leave. There were a record 545,000 parents missing work, on average, in June and July. Meanwhile, the number of temporary workers has also been sliding, showing that firms likely haven't been back filling slots when parents take some time off in a kid’s earliest years. There is little indication of a baby boom is the US, so the uptick is likely due to more firms offering the benefit. According to a Society for Human Resource Management survey, the share of firms offering maternity or paternity leave jumped 5 percentage points in a recent survey. — Alex Tanzi

What’s Next

The nation’s trade balance for June will be released tomorrow.

The deadline for “reciprocal” tariffs to take effect is Thursday.

Data on consumer borrowing in June will be reported Thursday.

Initial and continuing jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 2 will be released on Thursday.

The consumer price index for July will be released Aug. 12.

The producer price index for July will be reported Aug. 14.

Retail sales for July will be reported on Aug. 15.

The House and Senate are on break until Sept. 2.

Seen Elsewhere