The only person asking for more patience than Fed Chair Jerome Powell is someone running back to grab an onion “real quick” while their groceries hurtle down the conveyor belt at checkout. Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday, with his semiannual address mirroring his usual script: Wait and see.

While Powell declined to give a definitive answer on whether the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in July, he said that inflation data this month and next will be vital in determining when any rate cuts would occur this year. Powell expects the Fed to get a better picture of the effect of tariffs on inflation over the next few months.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously last week to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, where they’ve hovered for the last six months. But the “dot plot,” which anonymously shows individual Fed officials’ rate cut expectations, highlighted a growing disagreement among central bankers:

• Out of the total 19 members, nine said there should be either one or zero cuts this year, while eight hope for two cuts, and two members expect three cuts.
• In the past week, two Trump-appointed members, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have been vocal about favoring a July rate cut.

It’s getting harder to block out the politics: While the Federal Reserve is considered an independent institution, President Trump and a growing chorus of Republican lawmakers have put pressure on Powell to cut rates. Trump has directly attacked Powell, even threatening to fire him multiple times.

The most likely scenarios: Economists and future market pricing think a rate cut is unlikely in July but that one could be in the cards for September.—MM

President Trump criticizes Israel and Iran amid fragile ceasefire. Hours after Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to end hostilities after 12 days, both countries reportedly launched attacks against the other—though they each denied violating the truce. Trump then told reporters on the White House lawn that the countries have been fighting for so long that “they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.” Trump later posted on social media that the ceasefire was still in effect despite the breaches. Neither side has yet provided details on the terms of the agreement. In related news, a preliminary classified report said that US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites failed to destroy their underground buildings and may have only set its nuclear program back by a few months, per the New York Times.

Mamdani upset Cuomo in the NYC Dem mayoral primary. As expected, no candidate earned 50% of the vote in the Democratic primary yesterday, but Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, emerged as the No. 1 pick, accounting for 43.5% of the vote with 92% of the ballots in. After 10pm, former NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo conceded the primary and congratulated Mamdani, saying, “Tonight is his night. He deserved it. He won.” Cuomo then confirmed to the New York Times that he is still considering whether to run as an independent in the general election in November. Final results of the Democratic primary are due next week. If Mamdani wins it, he will be the heavy front-runner to become NYC’s new mayor.

McDonald’s and Krispy Kreme called it quits. Fast food’s hottest power couple ended their partnership yesterday, saying it was not profitable for Krispy Kreme. Under the arrangement, McDonald’s sold Krispy Kreme donuts in 2,400 of its stores, which was a moneymaker for the burger chain, but sadly less so for its dessert counterpart. “Efforts to bring our costs in line with unit demand were unsuccessful,” Krispy Kreme CEO Josh Charlesworth said, calling the relationship “unsustainable.” The union had been part of a plan to boost sales as cash-strapped customers reduce spending on dining. No word on who gets the coffee in the divorce.—AE

The Israel–Iran conflict has made vast swaths of airspace out of bounds for commercial aircraft in recent days, highlighting how the rising prevalence of wars is scrambling air travel.

A live flight map on FlightRadar24 displays a gaping hole in the plane swarms above Israel, Iraq, and Iran. Many airlines have also nixed flights to nearby hubs like Dubai and Doha as tensions escalate across the region.

Passengers have been stranded, while airlines face revenue losses and higher costs from longer, rerouted flights that burn more fuel. As a tenuous Israel–Iran ceasefire took hold yesterday, air carriers began restoring some flights in the region, while European and US airline stocks rose sharply.

But no-fly zones persist

Aviation issues didn’t start with the most recent conflagration:

• Parts of the Middle East are still off limits to aircraft, while a planeless territory has existed over Ukraine and parts of western Russia since the war between the two countries began in 2022.
• The square mileage of conflict zones has increased by 65% since 2021, according to risk consulting company Verisk Maplecroft.

This makes piloting harder…as flight reroutes lead to more crowded skies, creating congestion and straining control tower resources. Pilots flying near warzones also have to contend with GPS jamming, forcing them to rely on experience to gauge location and altitude.—SK

The Venice wedding of Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez is a lot like an Amazon purchase: a shifting three-day window for when it’s arriving, changing info about its location, and a lot of people don’t think it’s necessary.

Reports say the gaudy celebrations for the nuptials between a man who is finally pro-union and the woman he recently launched into space may begin tomorrow and run through Friday at a newly chosen, isolated location. Rumors were that the festivities could have started in the city center yesterday, but locals threatened to disrupt the event, forcing a change of venue.

Why are locals upset? The world’s fourth-richest person is monopolizing the Italian city’s finite resources, like water taxis, which have already been hindered by overtourism. Venice’s population was ~100,000 in the 1980s, but is now less than 50,000, with residents being driven away by an influx of hotels and short-term rentals. Some also have climate change concerns, which are not allayed by wealthy wedding guests arriving in yachts and private jets.

Bottom line: Local official Luca Zaia says the wedding will cost between $23 million and $34 million, boosting the local economy. But protesters don’t believe it will benefit residents.—DL

Soon you may be able to get a same-day Amazon delivery to your remote cabin in the woods after you and all your friends forgot bug spray. The e-commerce giant announced yesterday that it’s expanding its rapid delivery service to 4,000 towns in rural areas across the US by the end of the year.

Amazon already offers same- and next-day delivery in about 1,000 rural areas, and it said the feedback from customers was so positive that it’s quadrupling the effort. The company said that the number of items delivered the same or next day in the US is up 30% so far this year compared to last. And that’s before next month’s Prime Day, which will run for a record 96 hours starting on July 8—ample time for you to add a pair of Pokémon Crocs and some Dude Wipes to your cart.—AE