What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
The view from the Baltics. Though a direct conflict between NATO and Russia may never come, Estonia wants to ensure that it’s always prepared for that possibility—and it has fair reasons for that. The Baltic nation, which was annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940 and remained a part of it until regaining independence in 1991, shares a border with Russia and views it as a perpetual threat.
Estonia sees itself and other NATO members in close proximity to Russia’s borders as the alliance’s front door. “The only way to keep the front door closed is with the collective effort and with deterrence, to send a message to Russia that we are all together in this,” Pevkur told SitRep.
It therefore comes as no surprise that Estonia is one of the biggest cheerleaders for NATO’s new 5 percent defense spending goal—portraying the ambitious objective as long overdue. “Europe has been like a lazy, fat cat not doing anything with the defense. Even after 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine, nothing happened. Some sanctions, but no reaction,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told SitRep at the NATO summit. Tsahkna said NATO should have moved in this direction a decade ago. “But finally, we’re here,” he said.
In a sign of how seriously Tallinn is taking this, Estonia is on track to spend 5.4 percent of GDP on defense by next year—which would put it way ahead of many alliance members. Tsahkna conceded that spending so much on defense can impact other sectors of the economy but emphasized that in Estonia “there wouldn’t be any kind of social, medical, or education system if Russia is invading and we are not ready for that.” He said that the Estonian government has the “full support of the people.”
Pevkur also underscored that the cost of deterrence is far cheaper than the price tag of a war, pointing to how much Ukraine is spending amid its fight with Russia. Ukraine had the largest military burden of any country in 2024, spending 34 percent of its GDP on defense. The Estonian defense minister said he would much rather “invest 5 percent during peacetime” to help preserve peace and freedom than see Estonia land in a similar situation.
Indo-Pacific lite. NATO has stepped up its engagements in recent years with countries in China’s backyard—specifically Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The heads of government of each of those countries have attended the last three NATO summits dating back to 2022 in Madrid.
This year, however, only New Zealand chose to send its leader, in perhaps a sign that the truncated agenda is unlikely to leave much room for direct engagement with the alliance and particularly the United States. Japan’s foreign ministry announced abruptly on Monday that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba would not be attending, just three days after he said he would. Japan was instead represented by Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, whom Rutte met on Tuesday right after meeting New Zealand’s prime minister, Christopher Luxon.
The Japanese foreign ministry was vague about the reasons for Ishiba’s cancellation, only citing “various circumstances,” but the NATO summit’s core theme of Trump pushing allies to increase defense spending has caused tensions between Washington and Tokyo. Japan canceled its annual “2+2” security meeting with the United States scheduled for July 1, the Financial Times reported, after the Trump administration demanded it increase defense spending to 3.5 percent from the previously agreed 3 percent.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also decided to skip the summit, after his planned meeting with Trump at the G-7 summit in Canada last week was stymied by Trump’s early departure from that gathering. Albanese’s deputy, Richard Marles, came in his stead.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung also dropped out of the summit, with his spokesperson citing “a confluence of urgent domestic issues and growing instability in the Middle East,” according to local media. A NATO spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on the three leaders’ absence.
