One crucial factor could make or break it ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

United States President Donald Trump announced with great fanfare a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Iran. Yet the pact seemed incredibly fragile right from the start.

If both sides ultimately agree to stop firing missiles – a big if, given they were still trading missile strikes and threats even after yesterday’s agreement was set to begin – the key question is whether this is the start of a lasting peace, or something more temporary, Middle East expert Ali Mamouri writes.

Everything could hinge on Iran’s nuclear program. And Iran is expected to push even harder to acquire a nuclear bomb after the hostilities cease, writes nuclear disarmament expert Anthony Burke.

If Iran does make good on its threat to pull out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it has two paths to build a weapon, Burke says. And worryingly for the world, other states may choose to follow suit.

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Justin Bergman

International Affairs Editor

 

Will the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel hold? One factor could be crucial to it sticking

Ali Mamouri, Deakin University

Mutual deterrence may prevent a longer war for now, but the balance remains precarious and could collapse with little warning.

The war won’t end Iran’s nuclear program – it will drive it underground, following North Korea’s model

Anthony Burke, UNSW Sydney

The US and Israel bombing campaigns may only delay an Iranian bomb by a few years. Could this signal the death of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty?

Hauntingly familiar? Why comparing the US strikes on Iran to Iraq in 2003 is off target

Benjamin Isakhan, Deakin University

This is not the start of another Iraq, it’s the continuation of a presidency defined by impulsive power, unchecked force and disdain for democratic constraint.

eSafety boss wants YouTube included in the social media ban. But AI raises even more concerns for kids

Tama Leaver, Curtin University

AI is just one of the emerging threats online that won’t be tackled by the social media ban.

How old are you really? Are the latest ‘biological age’ tests all they’re cracked up to be?

Hassan Vally, Deakin University

These tests promise to show how much cellular ‘wear and tear’ your body has undergone, and how that corresponds with your age in years. Here’s what the science says.

Global rankings fuel hype, but students have more to consider when choosing a uni

Kylie Message, Australian National University

Global rankings are compelling and prestigious. But they don’t necessarily tell students what it is like to study at a particular university.

The ancients also had to deal with a cost-of-living crisis. Here’s how they managed

Konstantine Panegyres, The University of Western Australia

Ancient Greeks and Romans were well aware that a cost of living crisis can cause political strife. Here’s how they managed.

Video games can help trans players feel seen and safe. It all starts with design

Phoebe Toups Dugas, Monash University; Michelle Cormier, Monash University

New research highlights how game makers can design for trans-inclusivity – because if we want trans joy in the world, we will have to design for it.

Ibn Battuta, a 14th-century judge and ambassador, travelled further than Marco Polo. The Rihla records his adventures

Ismail Albayrak, Australian Catholic University

Food, religious rituals, gender relations … Ibn Battuta described them all in his travelogue, which covered the medieval Islamic world, India, China and beyond.

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Your Say

Stay neutral
"I'm 80 and thought I'd seen it all until the current US political turmoil. Here's our basic problem: Australia somehow feels the need to choose sides and get involved in other nations' wars led by egotistical megalomaniacs. The Boer war, WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam etc. It's not a footy game! Not a spectator sport! It's ordinary people who suffer and die, not those at the top. Not the generals, not the politicians, not the CEOs. I'd love to see our leaders embrace neutrality and give help to the affected. Make a positive commitment rather than add to the misery."
John Timmers

Bird games
"Your story about the deaths of thousands of birds through collisions with power lines must only refer to certain species of birds, or perhaps only to the high voltage power lines that march across the landscape, not the ones in my street. We have hundreds and hundreds of resident corellas that can be seen in the late afternoon perched on our town power lines. They also play hide and seek with the traffic lights; they seem fascinated with the changing light pattern. They do make an amusing sight whilst waiting for the lights to change!"
Elaine Langshaw, Nowra NSW

Opera fan
"I just LOVED Laura Case's elegant dissection of the opera Aphrodite. The modal harmonies were absolutely stunning, it was quite spellbinding and, uh-huh, beautiful!"
Barbara Rooke

We'd love to hear from you. You can email us with your thoughts on our stories and each day we'll publish an edited selection.

We'd love to hear from you. You can email us with your thoughts on our stories and each day we'll publish an edited selection.

 

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