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Before Trump's first term, people used to nervously joke that world affairs and even wars would be managed via Tweets. That disquieting prediction proved far-fetched as we now know these matters are managed via Truth Social posts. The weirdness of the Trump posts never seems to be fully reflected in the news coverage. Here's just a little sample: "Israel & Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said, ‘PEACE!’ I knew the time was NOW. The World, and the Middle East, are the real WINNERS. Both Nations will see tremendous LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY in their futures. They have so much to gain, and yet, so much to lose if they stray from the road of RIGHTEOUSNESS & TRUTH." That post led to a headline that should probably be put in the 2025 time capsule: Trump hails ‘love, peace’ in Middle East as Iran missiles send Israelis to shelters. (What's so funny about peace, love, and misunderstanding?) We're not the only ones being led into the future by the odd ramblings of Trump's social media posts. NYT(Gift Article): Trump’s Cease-Fire Announcement Catches His Own Top Officials by Surprise. But ultimately (regardless of way things are always covered around these parts), America is not the main character in this story. This is a regional story, one that has altered the playing field in the Middle East in ways that no one would have predicted. Post October 7, Israel has dramatically damaged Iran's proxies, its military might, much of its nuclear program, and its reputation as a regional terror agent and power. What will happen from this point is impossible to predict. One hopes it's time to stop the bombing in Gaza and to work with the Iranian people to achieve a more free democracy. But we could just as easily see the tenuous ceasefire break, a weakened Iranian government turn its ire inward and create even harsher conditions inside the country, or realize the regime is using the lessons of the last few days as evidence that it needs to move more aggressively than ever to achieve a nuclear weapon. LET'S HOPE FOR THE BEST.
+ "After Israel decimated Iran’s air defenses in a missile skirmish and crippled its main ally, Hezbollah, in October, Netanyahu issued a general order to prepare for a strike, the current and former officials said. Israeli intelligence officials began huddling to compile lists of dozens of Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders who could be targeted for assassination. Israel’s air force began to systematically take out air defenses in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to clear the skies for future bombing runs against Iran." WaPo (Gift Article): Netanyahu decided on Iran war last year, then sought to recruit Trump.
+ Josh Marshall: Tweet Storms and Bunker Busters—War in a Time of Trump.
+ We can't really analyze the US decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities without going back to the moment in 2018 when "President Trump tore up the agreement and replaced it with … nothing." Antony Blinken in the NYT (Gift Article): Trump’s Iran Strike Was a Mistake. I Hope It Succeeds. "I wish that he had played out the diplomatic hand we left him. Now that the military die has been cast, I can only hope that we inflicted maximum damage — damage that gives the president the leverage he needs to finally deliver the deal he has so far failed to achieve."
+ The New Yorker: Can Ayatollah Khamenei, and Iran’s Theocracy, Survive This War?
+ "In the 48 hours since the strikes, Trump’s top advisers have given differing answers about the fate of Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium, which, satellite imagery suggests, Iranian authorities may have relocated prior to the strikes. Iranian leaders, meanwhile, have given no indication that they are ready to surrender the nuclear program. Facing the likelihood of ongoing U.S. and Israeli attacks, they may be more likely to make the long-feared decision to try to race toward a bomb." The Atlantic (Gift Article): The True Impact of Trump’s Strike on Iran.
+ Where was Russia? That's a question Iran's leaders are probably asking, too. The fighting between Iran and Israel raises questions about Russia’s influence in the Middle East.
+ "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f**k they’re doing." So said the President about early violations of the ceasefire. As of this moment, it's holding. Here's the latest from CNN, NBC, BBC, and Times of Israel.
2
We Don't Do Process
With the ceasefire holding in the Middle East, it's time to go back to worrying about America's war on America. "The Supreme Court on Monday blocked a lower court order that required 15 days notice to individuals the Trump administration is trying to deport to countries other than their own. The high court's action, at least for now, reversed the lower court's order requiring that those being deported have enough time to contact their lawyers and present evidence that would show their lives would be in danger if deported to certain countries." U.S. Supreme Court allows — for now — third-country deportations. Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote: "The government has made clear in word and deed that it feels itself unconstrained by law, free to deport anyone, anywhere without notice or an opportunity be heard ... This is not the first time the court closes its eyes to noncompliance, nor, I fear, will it be the last."
+ Court order? What court order? "A senior Justice Department official, Emil Bove III, told subordinates he was willing to ignore court orders to fulfill the president’s aggressive deportation campaign, according to a whistle-blower complaint by a department lawyer who has since been fired ... In Mr. Reuveni’s telling, Mr. Bove discussed disregarding court orders, adding an expletive for emphasis, and other top law enforcement officials showed themselves ready to stonewall judges or lie to them to get their way." NYT (Gift Article): Justice Dept. Leader Suggested Violating Court Orders, Whistle-Blower Says. (This would be an even bigger deal if the majority in highest court frowned on such behavior.)
3
Pill Kill
The overturning of Roe and other attacks on choice haven't diminished the overall number of abortions in America. That's mostly because of the increase of medication abortions — taking pills to end a pregnancy now makes up 63 percent of all abortions in the country. Which brings us to the war on medication abortions. Bloomberg (Gift Article): The New Assault on Abortion Is Quieter — But Just as Dangerous. A "shift has been facilitated by telehealth, which has allowed women living in states with — and without — bans to more easily access timely care...However, all that progress could be undone by the FDA, which has been ordered to review the data on mifepristone by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr."
4
They're Compensating For Something
"A year ago, a 1,200-acre stretch of farmland outside New Carlisle, Ind., was an empty cornfield. Now, seven Amazon data centers rise up from the rich soil, each larger than a football stadium. Over the next several years, Amazon plans to build around 30 data centers at the site, packed with hundreds of thousands of specialized computer chips. With hundreds of thousands of miles of fiber connecting every chip and computer together, the entire complex will form one giant machine intended just for artificial intelligence. The facility will consume 2.2 gigawatts of electricity — enough to power a million homes. Each year, it will use millions of gallons of water to keep the chips from overheating. And it was built with a single customer in mind: the A.I. start-up Anthropic, which aims to create an A.I. system that matches the human brain." And the whole thing is being built for one customer. NYT (Gift Article): At Amazon’s Biggest Data Center, Everything Is Supersized for AI. (If the history of computing is any indicator, you'll probably be able to fit this amount of computing power into your pocket in at some point.)
+ In ancient times (about two years ago), everyone was advising young people to prepare for the job market of the future by learning to code. But then the tech industry coded those jobs into oblivion. The Computer-Science Bubble Is Bursting. "Artificial intelligence is ideally suited to replacing the very type of person who built it."
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Extra, Extra
Paving Paradise: "The Trump administration said on Monday that it would open up 58 million acres of back country in national forests to road construction and development, removing protections that had been in place for a quarter century." NYT(Gift Article): Trump Administration to End Protections for 58 Million Acres of National Forests. "Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Clinton-era rule barring road construction and logging was outdated and 'absurd.'" (He's not wrong. Nature is becoming outdated...)
+ Friend Zone: Canada and EU sign defense pact amid strained US relations and global instability.
+ I FTC What You Did There: "The all-Republican Federal Trade Commission agreed to approve a $13.5 billion ad merger if it includes a ban on steering ad dollars away from platforms or publishers based on 'political or ideological viewpoints.' ... The FTC commonly places conditions on companies seeking to merge through consent orders to prevent anticompetitive effects, but this unusual provision addresses a particular complaint of congressional Republicans and former 'First Buddy' Elon Musk."
+ Tahoe Tragedy: "The intensity of the thunderstorm surprised even forecasters, who had predicted some rain but nothing like the squall that lashed the southern part of the lake around 3 p.m., said meteorologist Matthew Chyba with the National Weather Service office in Reno, Nevada. Winds topped 35 mph and waves swelled up more than 8 feet." A really crazy, tragic, and as far as I know unprecedented freak storm in Tahoe. Last body found