U.S.-China Tech Competition and India’s Role in the World |
A sign for the Chinese tech company Baidu at the 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, China. (Aly Song/Reuters) |
In this month’s newsletter, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) experts examine the U.S.-China artificial intelligence (AI) race, India’s regional and global influence and its partnerships with other states, dynastic politics in Asia, and Thailand’s tightening authoritarianism, among other topics. |
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U.S.-China Tech Competition |
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The United States should not expect to maintain its lead in global AI market share and its ability to build more sophisticated AI systems than China. Washington needs to plan for the United States to possibly lose the AI competition to China—or at least for Chinese AI models to become just as sophisticated and popular globally as U.S. ones, argue CFR Technologist in Residence Sebastian Elbaum and Ira A. Lipman Chair in Emerging Technologies and National Security and Director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy Program Adam Segal in Foreign Affairs. Get their take
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The Trump administration’s policies on funding types of science and tech research and its hard line on immigration could undermine new U.S. advances in technology development. Rather than securing U.S. leadership, that strategy could accelerate techno-nationalism in other countries, deepen AI and cyber rivalries between states, and add to fractures in the alliances that have underpinned U.S. global influence for decades, write Tobias Feakin, former Australian ambassador for cyber affairs and critical technology, and Segal in Foreign Policy. Read the article
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South Korea’s New President |
If left-leaning South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, who recently won the job In a landslide vote, can abandon his party’s unrealistic prospect of reunification with the North, stop insisting on North Korea’s complete denuclearization, and offer a path toward North Korean development, he will open room for a détente, making various policies possible that could reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula, writes Visiting Professor of Political Science at John Cabot University John Delury in Foreign Affairs. Learn more
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India’s Influence and Partnerships |
For decades, India has wielded considerable influence throughout the subcontinent. Over the past two years, however, China has been gaining strategic influence over a number of South Asian states where India’s power is now declining, writes Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia Joshua Kurlantzick in Asia Unbound. Read the blog
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Despite the growing closeness of the U.S.-India strategic partnership and both countries’ desire to strengthen defense ties, differences between the United States and India remain, writes Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia Manjari Chatterjee Miller. In this series of CFR memos, defense experts in three countries examine India's positions on important defense issues—military operationalization, cooperation in space, and export controls—and explore how they differ with respect to the United States and some U.S. partners. Read the memos
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Authoritarianism and Dynastic Politics in South and Southeast Asia |
Thailand expert Paul Chambers, who had lived in the country for decades, only to be charged with lèse-majesté in the kingdom and faced a potential trial and years in jail, has fled the country,. His arrest and flight highlight Thailand’s tightening authoritarianism over issues related to the monarchy and military, even as youth-driven calls for reform gain momentum, explains Kurlantzick in Asia Unbound. Learn more
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For the past three years, two of the Philippines’ leading political dynasties—the Dutertes and the Marcoses—have battled each other through all means short of outright war, even though President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s vice president is Sara Duterte. The battle is likely to escalate until the 2028 presidential election, inhibiting investment and growth, increasing poverty, paralyzing the state, inciting deadly political violence, and keeping the Philippines economically behind its regional peers, argues Kurlantzick in World Politics Review. Read the article
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Now a failed state, Myanmar has become the center of global organized crime following the 2021 coup. It hosts huge drug trafficking organizations including major fentanyl producers, large cyber scam and financial fraud networks, some of the biggest human-trafficking gangs in the world, and many more organized crime syndicates. As the war grinds on, and no laws exist but force in Myanmar, those crime operations targeting the world will only expand, warns Kurlantzick in Asia Unbound. Learn more
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An examination of relevant policy documents from inside China suggests that Chinese authorities’ interest in reforming eldercare with robotics and technology is driven by their desire for economic growth and manufacturing prowess rather than a carefully considered evaluation of eldercare needs, writes Senior Fellow for China Studies Carl Minzner in Asia Unbound. Get his take
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Reassessing U.S-China Relations |
At the 2025 CFR C.V. Starr & Co. Annual Lecture on China, Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science, and International Affairs and Director of the China Policy Program at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs David Shambaugh, one of the world’s leading China experts and author of the new book Breaking the Engagement: How China Won & Lost America, examined the current escalating U.S.-China trade war and evaluated the legacy of the period when the United States and China were closer. Watch the event
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The Asia Unbound blog examines political, economic, and social developments in Asia and the region’s central importance in global affairs. |
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The Asia program at the Council on Foreign Relations informs policymakers, business leaders, and the public about the complex challenges facing the world’s largest continent.
To stay up to date on the latest Asia-related commentary and analysis, follow CFR’s Asia program on X and visit our blog Asia Unbound. |
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