The Sprint for City HallThe critical Democratic primary for mayor is here. Polls close at 9 p.m.Primary Day has arrived. Hi, I’m Dean Chang, the editor running The New York Times’s coverage of the mayoral primary. This was to be the eighth and last version of the newsletter, but just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in — or so it seems. In this edition, we’ll look at some of the important story lines that might influence the outcome and examine how a campaign’s ground game could make the difference. We’ll also explain why we probably won’t know who won the primary until next Tuesday, which likely extends The Sprint’s life for at least another week. (Any longer and we’re going shopping for a new name.)
THE NEWS And the winner is …Cue a weeklong drum roll, probably. Once Primary Day polls close at 9 p.m., the Board of Elections will begin counting the million-plus votes in the Democratic mayoral primary. But don’t expect a winner to be declared by night’s end. Under the city’s ranked-choice voting system, a candidate needs 50 percent or more of the first-place votes on primary night to win. If no one hits that threshold — and polling suggests that no one will — everything goes on hold for a week while mail-in ballots trickle in. Then we’ll reconvene next Tuesday for the start of the ranked-choice elimination process. In 2021, Eric Adams won, narrowly holding onto his primary night lead during the ranked-choice process, which saw Kathryn Garcia leapfrog Maya Wiley into second place. This year, left-leaning Democrats vowed to work together to elevate their top candidate, Zohran Mamdani. In an Emerson College poll released Monday, Andrew Cuomo led after the first round of voting. But Mamdani pulled ahead in the eighth round, topping Cuomo by 3.6 percentage points — matching the poll’s margin of error. It is the first major survey that shows a path to Mamdani winning. Could that happen in real life? Here are some numbers to watch as the night goes on. Trip Yang, a Democratic political strategist who is not associated with any mayoral campaign, said that Cuomo would have reason for optimism if he ended the night with an eight-to-10-point lead, but should worry if he was leading by five points or less. Another potential benchmark is whether Cuomo — and, to a lesser extent, Mamdani — reaches 40 percent after the first round. That would leave a small and achievable gap to close to get to the 50 percent threshold in the final round. All of this is to say, if you’re hosting an election night watch party, maybe hold off on the Champagne. More news:
The ground gameIn a close race, political strategists say that the candidate with the more effective ground game and better get-out-the-vote effort holds the advantage. Emma Fitzsimmons, our City Hall bureau chief, talked to two strategists who explained why Mamdani seemed in better position here. Yang, the Democratic strategist, did not mince words in comparing Cuomo’s field operations to Mamdani’s, saying the difference was “night and day.” Mamdani’s field operation was heavily run by the Democratic Socialists of America, which he said was great at getting loyal volunteers to knock on doors, hand out fliers on the subway and make calls. “Whether someone likes D.S.A. or not, they have the best volunteer operation in the city,” he said. Mamdani’s campaign said it had knocked on 1,165,862 doors as of Tuesday night, and had 42,300 total volunteers. Yang called those figures “insane.” He said that Cuomo was spending his money on television ads and direct mail, following the playbook of a “traditional front-runner’s campaign” and relying on paid field workers who are less enthusiastic than volunteers. Still, Jon Paul Lupo, a strategist not affiliated with a mayoral candidate, said it would be foolish to discount Cuomo’s field operation. “He has what is considered to be a valuable commodity in New York City politics, which is significant and widespread union support,” Lupo said. Lupo said that in 2021, Adams had a strong and prolonged ground game, especially in Brooklyn and southeast Queens, that helped him win. Mamdani’s field efforts may even surpass Adams’s effectiveness. “The impact of a field operation like Zohran’s can’t be underestimated and it doesn’t compare to a paid field operation,” Lupo said. “If you had to pick, you want the volunteer army.”
In case you missed anything …We get it. You’re busy, there’s a lot going on in the world. But you still want to make an educated choice on who to vote for. Or maybe you just want to be super well-versed at that watch party. If so, we applaud you and are here to serve. Where do the candidates stand? We sent a wide-ranging survey to the leading candidates for mayor about affordability, public safety, President Trump, homelessness, congestion pricing, immigration, schools and their one big idea. Their answers are here. We also invited the candidates to sit-down interviews for more specific questions about how much they pay to live in the city, what they think is the city’s most pressing issue, how often they take mass transit, and yes, what their favorite bagel order might be. The interviews are here. And we analyzed the top four candidates’ endgame speeches to see what messages they were prioritizing. Their closing arguments are here. Does experience matter? Most of the candidates, but especially Cuomo, have argued that they have the right mix of experience and knowledge to become mayor. As governor, Cuomo, 67, certainly has a long list of accomplishments, including building grand infrastructure projects like LaGuardia Airport and the Second Avenue subway, and his role in raising the minimum wage and approving gay marriage. But his tenure, which ended in 2021 after he resigned following a series of sexual harassment allegations that he denies, also included decisions that critics say hurt the city. A closer look is here. Mamdani has a much shorter track record. In his four-plus years in the New York State Capitol, only three of his bills have become law. Yet his influence is comparatively greater than that legislative record would suggest. More on that here. Still, he must persuade New Yorkers to entrust what many consider to be the hardest job in the country, second only to the presidency, to a 33-year-old upstart who until recently managed just five paid staff members. More on his challenge here. How has Mamdani’s faith and stance on Israel affected the race? Mamdani, a critic of Israel, reported last week that he had received violent threats, including voice mail messages accusing him of being a “terrorist” who “is not welcome in New York or America.” He was warned to be wary about turning a car’s ignition, even though he does not own a vehicle. The threats come as Mamdani’s stance on Israel has come under repeated attack. He has called Israel’s actions in Gaza a “genocide” and, when pressed, has not said if Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state. He was recently forced to explain his defense of the phrase “globalize the intifada.” But he strenuously denies being antisemitic, and was supported by roughly 20 percent of Jewish voters in a recent poll. Still, his bid to become the first Muslim mayor of New York City has been complicated. More on that here.
Poetic justiceWhen Cuomo decided to re-enter the political sphere, some of his closest allies came with him. They included Melissa DeRosa, his closest aide; Rich Azzopardi, his longtime spokesman; and Steven M. Cohen, a member of Cuomo’s inner circle for decades who is running Fix the City, a super PAC that has raised $25 million to aid the former governor’s efforts. But not every former ally has come on board. Nicholas Fandos checked in with one of them, Howard Glaser, after he dropped some caustic prose about his former friend and boss. At one time, there were few men closer to Cuomo than Howard Glaser. They met in 1982 on Mario Cuomo’s campaign for governor. Andrew Cuomo later hired Glaser as a top aide at the Department of Housing and Urban Development and made him his director of state operations as governor. So Glaser immediately grabbed the attention of Cuomo world on Monday when he published a withering assessment of the former governor’s campaign on X. He did not make a prediction about the outcome, but called the campaign “joyless” and his former boss “hollow.” The two men have long since fallen out. Glaser’s wife, Karen Hinton, accused Cuomo in 2021 of holding her in an intimate hug decades earlier while he was aroused and they worked together. Cuomo has denied it happened. But while Hinton has spoken out against Cuomo’s comeback attempt, Glaser kept his silence until Monday. Reached by phone, Glaser confirmed his post was about Cuomo but said he would let it speak for itself. Here it is: “A grim and joyless campaign, as befits a battle for a prize never wanted, one long viewed with disdain and contempt as a trifle that only lesser men would debase themselves to seek …. Victory, if it comes at all, will be bandaged with tinny fanfare and strident gloat, to muffle the voice at the center that won’t stop whispering “I’m hollow.” Azzopardi called Glaser “a disgruntled former employee” with an ego and an ax to grind. — Nicholas Fandos For a more detailed look at the candidates, go over to our Who’s Running tracker. And if you want to find other stories you may have missed, our mayor’s race landing page is right here.
WHAT’S YOUR RANKED-CHOICE BALLOT LOOK LIKE? 22 notable ballots. We found some that matched.Kathleen Chalfant and AnnaSophia Robb obviously have things in common. Chalfant is an award-winning stage actress, probably best known for her roles in the original productions of “Angels in America” and “Wit.” Robb gained acclaim as a child actor and recently starred in “Grosse Pointe Garden Society” on NBC. They also both chose the same five candidates in the same order of preference: Mamdani, Lander, Adrienne Adams, Zellnor Myrie and Michael Blake. Robb and Chalfant were among the 22 New Yorkers who shared their ranked-choice ballots in recent weeks. The results are far from scientific, nor reflective of broader voting patterns. But they illuminate how some of the people who write Broadway hits, run celebrated kitchens, fill TV screens and shape the skyline view the city’s challenges and the crop of 11 Democrats vying to lead it. There was one other direct match: Jeff Gural, a real estate titan, and Floyd Abrams, a renowned First Amendment lawyer, listed Cuomo as their one and only choice. Both viewed him as the candidate best equipped to lead and manage the city. Chalfant and Robb took the opposite view. Robb said Cuomo did not deserve to be mayor after being accused of sexually harassing multiple women. (He denies the claims.) “Let’s not normalize that,” she said. Chalfant said she did not rank Cuomo because he did not share her values, and said her ballot choices reflected her principles “whether or not in the popular understanding they have a chance.” She had originally planned to rank Jessica Ramos, but dropped her after Ramos endorsed Cuomo. PHOTO OF THE WEEK Scenes from the trailTimes photojournalists have been on the campaign trail for weeks, following the Democratic primary candidates throughout the five boroughs. Here are some of the highlights:
Thank you for reading today’s edition of The Sprint for City Hall. We may be back next Tuesday. Check your inbox around noon and find out! DATES TO WATCH
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