Good morning. Israel accused Iran of breaking a cease-fire between the countries that President Trump announced last night. Iran denied doing so, but the Israeli military has vowed to retaliate. Below, we explain what is happening and answer questions about the war.
Uncertain peace
Yesterday, President Trump declared that Iran and Israel had reached a cease-fire, bringing an end to what he called “the 12-Day War.” Iran and Israel later confirmed the truce. But it was tenuous: The sides traded fire until the last moments before it went into effect, and Israel said Iranian missiles had killed four people. Soon after the truce began, sirens again blared in northern Israel. Israel said Iran had launched missiles during the cease-fire, a claim Iran’s military denied. “We will respond with force,” the chief of staff for Israel’s military said. Trump’s announcement, which caught even some of his top officials by surprise, may not be the end of the conflict. We also don’t know if the war so far has accomplished the primary objective for Israel and the U.S.: to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. Whether last week’s American strikes actually destroyed their targets remains unclear. And what if Iran tries to rebuild its program? Today, I want to look at what the war with Iran leaves unresolved. Four questionsTrump at first claimed that American bombs obliterated Iran’s nuclear program. So far, though, much remains unsettled: Did the U.S. strikes destroy their targets? American officials say that U.S. bombs and missiles did “severe” damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. But we still don’t know much about their effect, particularly on Fordo, where Iran enriches uranium. The military had previously claimed that it could wipe out the site with just two bunker-busting bombs; it ultimately dropped a dozen. Officials may not get answers for days or weeks, if ever. The same trait that makes Fordo so hard to strike — that it’s deep underground — also makes gauging its status difficult. Does Iran have a secret enrichment facility? Before the U.S. attacks, Iran said that it had built a new enrichment site, its third, “in a secure and invulnerable location.” The facility is possibly under a mountain, similar to Fordo. If it’s up and running with the newest centrifuges, it could enrich uranium for nuclear weapons within months. Where is Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium? American officials concede that they don’t know. Iran might have moved it before the strikes, given all the warnings about a looming U.S. attack. The 880 pounds of uranium — enough to fit in the trunks of 10 cars — is enriched to 60 percent purity, below the 90 percent used in nuclear weapons, David Sanger, who covers national security, reported. Will Iran rebuild? Its leaders may decide that the pursuit of nuclear weapons is futile — that Israel and the United States will simply destroy anything Iran creates. But after seeing how easily Israel and America blew through its defenses, Iran may instead conclude the opposite: that the best way to protect itself is a nuclear deterrent. After all, that strategy has recently worked for Russia and North Korea. The inspectorsHow do we know anything at all about Iran’s nuclear program? That’s the job of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which reports to the United Nations. It checks on levels of enrichment and the whereabouts of bomb-grade uranium to ensure that Iran isn’t building a weapon. How? Evan Gorelick explains. What does the I.A.E.A. do? In 1968, Iran signed the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which requires it to declare the contents of its inventory. The I.A.E.A. ensures it’s telling the truth. To do that, inspectors visit nuclear sites to weigh uranium canisters and take samples to measure enrichment levels. One difficulty in getting an accurate view of Iran’s work: The inspectors did not make surprise visits. Instead, they sought permission before entering facilities. They were still doing so until Israeli bombs fell 11 days ago. And now? The agency is using satellite images to assess damage remotely, but experts say those tools don’t make up for on-site inspections. The I.A.E.A. wants to return to track Iran’s nuclear stockpile, including the near-bomb-grade uranium whose location remains unknown. But … After the attacks, Iran’s Parliament is said to have approved the outline of a bill that would suspend future cooperation with the agency. More on the conflict
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