Trump's "Mission Accomplished" moment

Addressing the nation on Saturday evening, President Trump declared that the bombing of Iran was a "spectacular military success" and that all of Iran's key nuclear sites were "completely and totally obliterated." Trump's chest-puffing continued on his social media platform, Truth Social, where he described the strikes as "very successful" and having inflicted "Monumental Damage."

These proclamations were parroted by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who told reporters on Sunday morning that "[t]hanks to President Trump's bold and visionary leadership… Iran's nuclear ambitions have been obliterated."

Trump's unequivocal claims, made just hours after the attack, were reminiscent of when former President George W. Bush, just six weeks after the start of the Iraq War, gave a celebratory speech on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in front of a "Mission Accomplished" banner. "In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed," Bush said. The war continued for another 8 years.

The story told by Trump and other administration officials about Iran is already falling apart.

Top general says it is "way too early" to assess the efficacy of the bombing

Appearing with Hegseth at the Pentagon on Sunday morning, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine said that, although the strikes inflicted damage, it was "way too early" for him to assess the impact of the bombing and what nuclear capabilities Iran retains. Caine explained that the battle damage assessment was still in progress.

Moreover, many of the most important facilities are located deep underground. Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that while the damage to underground facilities could be significant, "no one … neither us nor anybody else could be able to tell you how much it has been damaged."

Experts who reviewed satellite imagery of the three sites targeted by US strikes said that Iran's "long-running nuclear enterprise is far from destroyed."

On Meet the Press, Vice President JD Vance refused to say whether he agreed with Trump that Iran's nuclear sites were "completely and totally obliterated." Vance suggested answering the question would involve "sensitive intelligence." Vance would only say that the strikes "pushed [Iran's] program back by a very long time." Preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon over the long run, Vance acknowledged, would still require "a conversation… we're going to have with the Iranians and also with our allies in the region." The US was engaged in talks with Iran until Israel initiated the bombing campaign on June 13. Before the US bombing, Iran expressed a willingness to resume diplomacy even as Israeli attacks continued.

Iran likely retains an enriched uranium stockpile

According to the IAEA's Grossi, Iran moved their stockpile of enriched uranium from the sites targeted by the US before the attack. This includes "400 kilograms, or roughly 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity." The material is "stored in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars."

Appearing on ABC's This Week, Vance appeared to concede that Iran still retained the stockpile and said it was an issue that the administration would "have conversations with the Iranians about."

KARL: The -- the UN's atomic energy watchdog said that Iran had 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium. What -- do we know what has become of that? Is -- was it destroyed in this attack? Do we know? That's a big stockpile.

VANCE: Well, we're going to work in the coming weeks -- yes, Jon, we're going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel. And that's one of the things that we're going to have conversations with the Iranians about.

Vance said the Iranians no longer have the capability to further enrich the uranium, but that assessment depends on how badly the facilities targeted by the US were damaged, which is still unknown. Another possibility is that Iran relocated equipment before the US strikes.

Satellite imagery showed "16 cargo trucks positioned near an entrance" to the critical Fordo site before the attack. It is not known "what, if anything, was removed from the facility." (It is very difficult to move centrifuges.)

Iran's nuclear knowledge cannot be destroyed

Whether or not Iran's nuclear facilities were fully or partially destroyed, if Iran wants to build a nuclear bomb, an aerial strike campaign cannot stop its efforts. Iran has the knowledge to build the components necessary for the production of a nuclear bomb. Any necessary equipment or components destroyed in the attack can be rebuilt.

"You can't bomb knowledge," James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said.

Before the US attack, the US intelligence community concluded that Iran had no plans to produce a nuclear weapon. But US intelligence also believed an American attack on Iran could change Iran's posture.

Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said even the most effective bombing campaign could only "set back [Iran's] nuclear program by maybe a few years." David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, argued that the only way to prevent Iran from producing a nuclear weapon "is through additional nuclear inspections by international monitors and cooperation from the Iranian regime, probably through some kind of diplomatic agreement."

The US convinced Iran to agree to limitations on enrichment and robust inspections in 2015, an agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). While the agreement was in place, Iran did not produce