Why the 'Conclave' Streaming Surge Is a Licensing Cautionary Tale | Chart

By Christofer Hamilton

Donald Rumsfeld popularized the concept of known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns (though ‘popularized’ might be the wrong term for a convoluted quote from a Secretary of Defense about the Iraq War). “Conclave” provides an illustrative example of how to view content performance through this risk assessment framework.  

A movie’s premiere is something of a “known known” that can be choreographed months in advance to maximize its odds of success. Awards season is a “known unknown” for a movie like “Conclave.” The particular nominations, wins, and whether a film will be a breakout hit of the awards circuit can’t be known in advance, but can be planned for to some degree. The Pope’s death definitely falls into the “unknown unknown” category.