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New Delhi embarks on a sensitive census
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Today’s Must-Reads

The Pernicious Longevity of Caste

The last time India asked its citizens to self-identify by caste, the survey generated 4.6 million different categories in the millennia-old system of social stratification. It was likely the result of interchangeable names for the same castes in the country’s vast array of languages, regions and subcultures. That 2011 data was deemed unusable — foiled by an open-ended question — in the epic quest for equality in the world’s most populous nation. The last time useful numbers were produced was in 1931, in a census by British colonial authorities. That produced 4,000 answers.

Andy Mukherjee says the caste system is “the biggest obstacle to India’s embrace of modernity.” He says it “divides Hindus into rigid categories that govern every aspect of life” based on birth and descent. This has meant that upper-caste Hindus get the better jobs while lower-caste ones remain stuck at the bottom of the economic pyramid. “For people to discard this abhorrent marker,” he writes, “it’s important for the state to gauge it accurately.”

Last month, New Delhi announced that it would include caste in the next national census, which was supposed to have taken place in 2021 but was delayed by the Covid pandemic. It’s a pernicious problem. Says Andy: “Most people who know their own place in the elaborate hierarchy can guess where others sit.” He adds, “The Indian diaspora has even taken it to California,” where two Hindu professors unsuccessfully sued a state university for including caste as a discriminatory factor.

Past attempts to impose the equivalent of US-style affirmative action programs, indeed official quotas, have led to violent protests — and vehement opposition from the country’s more privileged castes. It remains to be seen whether they will support Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to number the memberships per caste. “Without fresh data,” says Andy, “it will be difficult to persuade people in the higher strata that their privilege is in the way of progress of those below.”

Modi and his ruling party have other political reasons for this. Not knowing the size of lower-caste populations may have led to underestimates of the opposition to the government, resulting in the party’s election setbacks last year.

Now, all that needs to be done is to set a date for the census. And to make sure they ask the question wisely. 

For the UK, Win Some Trade, Lose Some Tycoons

Trade deals aren’t easy to put together. Maybe that’s why some people like to go off and impose tariffs without as much as how-d’you-do. Nevertheless, the UK has done the hard thing: Negotiate with tariff-loving Donald Trump to become the first out of the block with a trade deal with the US in the post “Liberation Day” era.

London may have had practice. Just days before, the British and Indian governments announced that they’d come up with a civil, carefully calibrated and mutually beneficial trade agreement. Says Mihir Sharma: “Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his UK counterpart, Keir Starmer, probably had to push their officials over the finish line themselves. As recently as a few days ago, stories about how many issues remained to be resolved filled the papers.” But it’s going to be worth it for consumers in both countries.

Unlike the deal with New Delhi, much of Starmer’s breakthrough with Washington is symbolic. Robert Burgess writes: “To be clear, it’s not a deal but rather a framework for an agreement. In other words, US and UK negotiators still have a lot of work to do in coming weeks (perhaps months or even years like these things usually take?) to hammer out the details.”

While Marcus Ashworth and Lionel Laurent think Starmer can claim the US deal as a political win, they caution that the rest of the world shouldn’t interpret it as Trump easing up on tariffs: “That’s the thing about an interdependent and interconnected trading system: Until there’s more clarity on what lies ahead for the European Union or China, among others, it’s hard for a UK deal on its own to make a significant difference.”

Another policy of Starmer’s Labour government is unloved by the UK’s mega-rich foreign residents — or soon-to-be ex-residents — appalled at the coming end of tax exemptions on their overseas earnings. The anecdotal evidence is gathering apace, as Matthew Brooker notes in his column. Furthermore, he says, a report by the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research says that tax changes affecting the so-called “non-dom” residents “could cost the Treasury £7.1 billion ($9.5 billion) if 40% of non-doms — about 80,000 taxpayers — leave.” 

Telltale Charts

“If you want an image of the clean-power industry in a deglobalized world, wind is a good place to start. Generation this year will still probably end up about 14% above the [International Energy Agency’s] 2020 prediction — but the picture is darkening. … In China, the biggest market for wind energy, costs have fallen by half since the start of 2020, thanks to increasing deployments. In the US, they have risen by more than a third. ” — David Fickling in “Wind’s Doldrums Are a Clue to Energy’s Trade-War Future.”

“In a week of tributes to Warren Buffett, here’s one from me, in the form of stealing one of his best aphorisms: Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked. The currency market is getting a view of that just as traders question the dollar’s dominance and whether the greenback is in a structural decline. Taiwan is among the first left exposed. Its dollar rose as much as 5% against the US currency on Monday, the most since 1988, and has rallied about 8% this year.” — Shuli Ren in “Taiwan’s Carry Trade Blowup Means Bigger Dollar Trouble.”

Further Reading

The math behind BlackRock’s CEO pay. — Chris Hughes

Netflix  à la française. — Marc Champion 

OpenAI can’t have its money both ways. — Parmy Olson

This tariff mess was 100 years in the making. — Stephen Mihm

Will India vs Pakistan be a sea battle? — James Stavridis

Let’s talk nuns, not Popes. — Frank Barry

Walk of the Town: A Rainy Day in Scotland

Like almost everyone I know, I, too, did not get an invitation to the Met Gala. Though what I really wanted to see (I say this truly without envy for the fashionistas) was the Sargent and Paris exhibition at the museum, which is focused on John Singer Sargent’s time in the French capital and his controversial portrait of the American expatriate Amélie Avegno Gautreau, a painting more famously known as the portrait of Madame X. It caused a scandal at the time it was exhibited in 1884 because of what many felt was a blatant emphasis on female sexuality (one dress strap was originally off-shoulder). It almost derailed Sargent’s career, with shocked critics saying he was courting controversy to make a name for himself.

Lady Agnew of Lochnaw by John Singer Sargent at the National Galleries of Scotland Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg

And so, on a rainy day in Edinburgh in the middle of April, I made sure I got to the National Galleries of Scotland to see the work that got Sargent over the Paris scandal and established him as high-society’s unquestioned portrait painter. His 1892 rendition of Gertrude Agnew exudes womanly confidence without the overt seduction of Madame X. The brushwork is masterful and soothing. It’s a masterwork.

The portrait was also Lady Agnew’s bid for upward mobility. And it turned out to be good insurance. Falling into hard times at the end of her life, she was able to secure a good price by selling it. The buyers then made it a bequest to Scotland and its national gallery, where it was a welcome sight for a soggy traveler. 

Drawdown

“There are more things in heaven and on earth, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”

“I hope there’s some science to this.” Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg

Notes: Please send neither fish nor fowl, just feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net.

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