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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.

With the election of an American progressive to lead the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics, the late Pope Francis may have pulled off a geopolitical masterstroke.

During his 12-year reign, Francis essentially stacked the College of Cardinals that would elect his successor in his favor and the perception is that the new Pope Leo XIV will maintain and expand his legacy.

In giving their backing to Robert Francis Prevost, the papal conclave, in just two days, picked a Chicago native young enough to set the direction of the Church for a generation. The 69-year-old, who is also a Peruvian citizen, was made cardinal only in 2023.

His elevation is testament to the fact that the papacy, confined since the unification of Italy behind Vatican walls, remains a political force to be reckoned with.

Leo XIV at the Vatican yesterday. Photographer: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images

Leo has made history as the first American pope, a genuine wow factor no one saw coming. He wasn’t on the list of cardinals considered serious pope material. Even Donald Trump, who playfully posted an AI-generated photo of himself as pontiff, was impressed.

How Vice President JD Vance feels is another matter. One of the last people to see Francis alive, Vance is a newly converted Catholic on the side of wanting the Church to pivot back to traditional values.

In Leo he may have found a worthy adversary, though not one as combative as himself. As cardinal, Leo had a tiny social-media footprint — and has been highly selective in his posts.

But in his own quiet way, he has been vocal on migration, a highly divisive issue that was critical to restoring Trump to the presidency, and also one that Francis, as the first pope from Latin America, felt passionately about.

If Pope Benedict was the bookish conservative and Francis the liberal activist, Leo might just be a bridge between the two. Flavia Krause-Jackson

Celebrations marking the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the 267th pope in Vatican City yesterday. Photographer: Alessia Pierdomenico/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Ahead of trade talks with China this weekend, the Trump administration is weighing a dramatic tariff reduction to de-escalate tensions and temper the economic pain both nations are starting to feel. The expectation of many analysts is that unless levies come down, trade between the world’s two largest economies will crumble after reaching almost $690 billion last year, decimating industries and raising prices for companies and consumers.

As Trump prepares to head to the Gulf next week, the US Treasury Department said it’s developing a fast-track process for screening foreign investments, an effort administration officials expect could smooth the way for billions from wealth funds in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, meanwhile, warned that deals with South Korea and Japan could take significantly more time to complete than the framework agreement with the UK Trump announced yesterday.

Vladimir Putin said Russia was united behind his strategic goals in the war in Ukraine and “that strength of spirit has always brought us only victory.” The president spoke at a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, a day after Trump called for a 30-day ceasefire to allow for peace talks and Chinese leader Xi Jinping urged a “fair” settlement in Ukraine.

Russian S-400 missile systems on Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow today. Photographer: Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP/Getty Images

India said it “neutralized” Pakistani drone and missile attacks targeting several military sites last night, marking an escalation in hostilities between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Bases in the northern cities of Jammu, Pathankot and Udhampur near the border were targeted, India’s Ministry of Defence said, while Pakistan’s government denied it had launched the attacks, saying the claims were “politically motivated.”

For decades, a sleepy town in the Brazilian hills has been the nation’s main exporter of people, building a whole industry around transporting people to the US. Andrew Rosati reports from Governador Valadares on how its wealth and residents are at risk thanks to the Trump administration’s deportations and changing US attitudes toward migration.

Our journalists, your questions: Don’t miss your chance to engage directly with Bloomberg reporters and editors in two Live Q&A conversations happening today. At 9 a.m. EDT, we’ll be talking about the US-UK trade deal. And at 1 p.m., senior investigative reporter Jason Leopold will discuss how he uses public record requests to investigate the US government, including what he’s learned so far in the Trump administration.

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte won’t be on the ballot for Monday’s midterm elections, but the outcome could determine whether she keeps her job in a high-stakes contest centered around a feud between the country’s two most powerful families.

Sara Duterte in Manila yesterday. Photographer: Lisa Marie David/Bloomberg

North Korea’s short-range missile tests overseen by Kim Jong Un this week aimed to simulate nuclear attacks on the US and South Korea, Pyongyang’s state media said, highlighting the threat the nation poses to its neighbors and beyond.

Ukrainian authorities detained two people who allegedly spied for Hungary, a development that’s likely to exacerbate tensions between the neighbors.

The Trump administrations university funding cuts and threats to tax endowments have raised the prospect of a brain drain, with many US-based scientists considering jobs elsewhere, and countries like Canada and France actively recruiting them. Read our weekend essay here.

In the latest installment of Trumponomics: Niall Ferguson and Fareed Zakaria join this week’s episode to place Trump’s plans for the US economy in historical perspective. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

For almost two decades, Abby Gao has planned weddings in China. Lately, she’s diversified into children’s birthdays, forced by plummeting demand for nuptials. Marriages have dropped for most of the past decade and last year slumped by more than a fifth to a record low, compounding a demographic crisis that’s threatening the world’s second-biggest economy.

And Finally

Charlie Clarke fell severely ill in late summer 2023 after a swim at Clevedon Marine Lake in southwest England while training for a triathlon. His story is one of many showing how severe the impact of Britain’s sewage crisis can be on everyday life. As the weather turns warmer, the swimming season is getting underway, and although spills were supposed to become fewer, they’ve worsened.

Surfers Against Sewage organized a day of national protest around the UK to campaign against the water companies dumping sewage into the British rivers and seas. Photographer: Krisztian Elek/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images

Pop quiz (no cheating!). Which country’s main opposition leader was slapped in the face last weekend after attending the funeral of another politician? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

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