• In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady on Bill Gates and the new pope.
• The big story: Trump says China tariffs will be reduced as trade delegates head into negotiations this weekend.
• The markets: Low on drama.
• Analyst notes from JPMorgan Chase on Eddy Cue’s commentary on Google, Blackrock on recession risk, Goldman Sachs on the “hard data,” Daiwa Capital Markets on the Fed’s rate cut schedule, and Convera on the upcoming trade deals.
• Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. Two powerful figures who are motivated by a desire to do good are on my mind this morning. First, there’s Pope Leo XIV, who hails from Chicago and is the first American to lead the Catholic Church. Then there is Bill Gates, who, in a wide-ranging and exclusive interview with Fortune published yesterday, delved into his decision to radically accelerate his giving. We know that Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost is stepping up to head an organization that has long been financially troubled and has a mission to grow for the next century and beyond. Gates, on the other hand, has pledged to give practically all his wealth to a foundation that he now plans to close by 2045.
We don’t yet know how Pope Leo XIV will shape his strategy or the organization he leads. But we’ve had 25 years to see the impact of the Gates Foundation, which was established by the Microsoft cofounder and his now-ex wife Melinda. It’s had a profound impact on boosting global health and development while reducing preventable deaths, especially through vaccine development, education and local funding.
As Gates scales up his giving (you can read Fortune’s package of stories here), it does raise questions about the amount of sway a private citizen should have over public policy. His generosity—which could total $200 billion by 2045—gives him incredible power in shaping public policy. When another fellow billionaire, Elon Musk, took his hatchet to USAID, Gates criticized it as tantamount to “the world’s richest man killing the world’s poorest children.” Musk isn’t elected–and neither is Bill Gates. Should either have this much sway? But Gates is stepping up at a time when many public officials are stepping back. Few can argue with the need to invest in public health around the globe. Gates will save lives. I hope he—and the new pope—also succeed in empowering others, too.
More news below.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
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Trump says China tariffs will be reduced. As U.S. trade delegates head into talks this weekend in Switzerland with their China counterparts, the president said, “You can’t get any higher — it’s at 145%, so we know it’s coming down,” according to Bloomberg. “I think we are going to have a good weekend with China.”
Chinese exports to the U.S. dropped 21%. Its exports to Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America all surged.
What we learned from the U.S.-U.K. trade deal: It’s bad news, says the FT, because it undermines existing global trade agreements. It doesn’t offer a road map for other nations, the WSJ reports. There are so few details it’s a “nothingburger,” Tim Meyer, a trade law professor at Duke University, told Bloomberg. The way to negotiate with Trump is to be charming, Axios claims.
U.S. automakers are angry at the deal because U.K. cars are now cheaper than those made with American parts under existing agreements with Canada and Mexico.
Melinda French Gates told Fortune that her future philanthropy will focus on women and girls. “I know that only 2% of philanthropy goes to organizations that work on gender,” she said.
OpenAI recruits Instacart CEO. OpenAI announced on Thursday that Instacart CEO Fidji Sumo will become the company’s first CEO of Applications. The AI giant said that Simo will join the company “later this year.”
In conversation with the CEO of REI. Fortune sat down with the new CEO of outdoor retailer REI less than two weeks into her tenure leading the embattled company. Read the whole conversation with Mary Beth Laughton here.
Trump calls Powell a “fool.” President Donald Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “fool” on Thursday for failing to cut interest rates on Wednesday. Robert R. Johnson, a finance professor at Creighton University, told Fortune he believes Trump is keeping Powell around to use him as a scapegoat.
Trump threatened further sanctions against both sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict if they cannot reach a ceasefire agreement.
Millionaire’s tax: Republicans are not excited about the White House’s idea of raising tax on those earning more than $2.5 million to 40%.
A new Netflix homepage is coming. The main navigation dashboard for the streamer hasn’t been changed in 12 years.
The markets
• The S&P 500 rose 0.58% yesterday and S&P futures are flat this morning. Palantir was up 8%. Bitcoin hit $100,000 again. It was over $103,000 this morning. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.6% this morning. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.44% in early trading on news of the trade deal with the U.S. Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.33% in early trading. Markets in China and India fell.
From the analysts
• JPMorgan Chase on Eddy Cue’s commentary on Google: “Google shares traded down 7% on Wednesday (SPX +0.4%) on testimony at the Google Commercial Search trial from Eddy Cue, Apple’s SVP of Services. Driven by a series of tweets (see here), Google ultimately gave up nearly $150B in market cap, or ~$12.5B per tweet. Three things really stood out from our perspective: 1) Cue noted that search volume on Apple was down in April for the first time in 20 years because people are using ChatGPT & Perplexity; 2) Cue indicated that Apple is considering adding AI providers as search options on Safari and has had discussions w/Perplexity & OpenAI; & 3) Cue emphasized that losing revenue share from Google (which we believe is ~$20B/year) would have a significant impact on Apple & its ability to create new products. The first two points suggesting share loss and increased competition add more fuel to the bear fire which has weighed on Google for more than two years,” per Doug Anmuth.
• Blackrock on recession risk: “If the current elevated tariffs on U.S.-China trade stay in place, we think the ensuing supply chain disruptions will likely result in a supply-driven contraction in the U.S. this year. That’s very different from a typical recession caused by weakening demand. It’s more akin to what we saw in the pandemic: supply disruptions quickly leading to a contraction, but activity can also pick up again quickly if and when those disruptions dissipate,” per Jean Boivin.
• Daiwa Capital Markets on the Fed’s rate cut schedule: “We still view possible reductions in interest rates as unlikely to materialize in the next month or so,” per Lawrence Werther and Brendan Stuart.
• Convera on the upcoming trade deals: “The anticipated deal is among 17 agreements the Trump administration has pursued with major trading partners as it looks to row back its broader tariff strategy. While the news is expected to lift market sentiment, investors will focus on how far the administration is willing to walk back tariff measures and whether it opens the flood gates for further deals with other countries,” per George Vessey.
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